Federer v Nadal — Is the rivalry over?

By Online Editorial
12:16pm UK, Sunday December 20, 2009

By Online Editorial, 12:16pm UK, Sunday December 20, 2009

roger federer v rafael nadal

Federer v Nadal is up there with tennis’ greatest rivalries, including McEnroe v Borg and Sampras v Agassi, says Simon Mundie. But what will 2010 hold for the world numbers one and two?

At the outset of 2009, there were a number of potential challengers for the top spot in the men’s game, such as Andy Murray (7.6 to win the Australian Open) and Novak Djokovic 8.2. But they were no more than pretenders. The main plotline was still all about Roger and Rafa, the duo which had dominated the game for four straight seasons.

Rafael Nadal 9.2 had played second fiddle to the Swiss maestro ever since he demonstrated just how good he was by winning his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros in 2005, beating Federer 3.5 in a four set semi-final on route. Since then, their rivalry had evolved into one for the ages, up there with the likes of Bjorg and McEnroe, Agassi and Sampras.

Nadal, one of the greatest clay-court players to have ever picked up a racket, dominated on the red stuff, while Roger Federer was fast becoming a challenger for Sampras’ title of the finest grasscourt player of the modern era, swatting all before him on the lawns of SW19 and Halle.

Nadal won their three straight finals at the French between 2006 and 2008, while Federer won their Wimbledon encounters of 2006 and 2007. It appeared both of them were more or less unbeatable on their favoured surfaces, with the other having to play second fiddle for at least part of the season.

In 2008, the status quo changed when Nadal destroyed Federer in the French final, and then won the greatest Wimbledon final of all time to depose Roger and snatch the number one ranking, adding another dimension to their already impressive story.

When the two played another five-set epic in this years Australian Open final, culminating in Federer breaking down in tears during the awards ceremony, you felt that Nadal had a chance to win the calendar Grand Slam with Federer’s best hope of major success coming in the second half of the season.

As it turned out, the season panned out rather differently. Robin Soderling 44.0 burst Nadal’s bubble at Roland Garros, allowing Federer to win the French and Wimbledon and break Sampras’ Grand Slam record in the process. Nadal missed much of the year with injury, and when he did return, it was a new, slimline Rafa, who didn’t cut the same imposing figure. His aura was missing.

After losing the US Open final to Juan Martin Del Potro 7.0, Federer also began to look forlorn, seemingly struggling with motivation and consistency. He lost two matches at the ATP Tour finals, struggling to cope with Del Potro’s power for the second consecutive match and suffering his first ever defeat to Nikolay Davydenko 23.0. While he looked jaded, there was no real reason for it, as he had hardly played since the US Open.

Without the excuse of overplaying and fatigue, the reason for Federer’s lacklustre performances more likely lies in knowing that the days of just having to worry about Nadal as a potential banana skin are over. In truth, he never hit the heights during his French Open and Wimbledon wins, and now he has to contend with the young guns who are starting to fulfill their potential; players like Del Potro and a resurgent Djokovic.

So what will 2010 hold for the two modern greats of the game? I would be surprised if they were to contend a Grand Slam final in 2010. Nadal finished the season as the ATP Tour finals’ whipping boy, and it will be extremely difficult to recover from that.

As already mentioned, his aura of invincibility has been severely punctured after that defeat to Soderling, coupled with his dramatic weight loss and ongoing fitness problems. He doesn’t look the same as during his pomp of just 12 months ago, and it remains to be seen whether he can play at anything like the same level.

As for Federer, you know he will be there or thereabouts in the Grand Slams. He always is. But several players will fancy their chances against him more than ever. The likes of Del Potro and Djokovic will go on court believing they are favourites to win, while a band of up and coming players just behind them will relish the chance to grab Federer’s scalp at a Slam.

Once Federer has been knocked out of a tournament by someone outside the top three, the floodgates might open just as they did for Sampras after Federer beat him at Wimbledon in 2001. It wouldn’t be a total surprise if that happened as soon as the Australian Open in January.

It is extremely difficult to predict what will happen in 2010, more so than for several seasons. However, it won’t just be about the Federer- Nadal rivalry.

Reproduced with permission from betting.betfair.com. © The Sporting Exchange Limited

HAVE YOUR SAY - 8 Comments

rhiannon on December 20th, 2009 at 10:50pm

you do love to predict Federer’s demise. In fact you never stop sniping .
prediction – will probably win 3 grand slams in 2010.
go away – we are tired with the negative campaign against federer.

…..and we hate djokovic!!!!and soderling!!!so there!!!
olivia on December 21st, 2009 at 3:48pm

Federer’s reign is over..its time for him to pack up and go….nadal may be the biggest rival of roger but nadal dominates over the court & over federer in a supreme way….nadal is the best player of this era….roger won french open in rafa’s absence..so,much credit cannot be given to him for winning the french open…there’s a serious lack of sportsmanship within roger….he is no good mental strength-not for himself nor for anyone……RAFA RCKZ!!!!!!!
Paul on December 29th, 2009 at 12:15pm

I doubt if Nadal will ever recover to anything near his peak performance during 2010.
It would not surprise me if he were to announce his retirement from professional tennis, at the end of 2010.
eduardo D on January 12th, 2010 at 2:37am

I want to remark one point, Nadal always has had an advantage playing to Federer, his age. He is 4 or 5 years younger, so his wins over Roger were not in equal conditions. What would have happened if both were the same age? Or , what would be the results of matches between a 27 years Nadal versus a 22 years Federer? I believe the statistics would be better for Federer. The same case for the matches Nadal-Agassi, Nadal had the great advantage of being about 14 years younger. I think a 23 years Agassi would beat 80 % of times a 30 years Nadal, and maybe 100% times a 35 years Nadal.
After Nadal crossed the barrier of 22 years, his record against top 7 players is not very good. Last 20 times he has faced Soderling, Djokovic, Federer, Del Potro, Davidenko and Murray (all combined) his record is negative. I think it must be around 5 wins and 15 loss. And let’s wait to see his results when he gets older than 25 years.
Felipe on January 31st, 2010 at 1:50pm

Well, it looks like the editorial’s opinion could not
be more wrong and pointless.

Federer won the 2010 aussie title over Murray, Del Potro
and Dokovic both lost track somewhere during the
tournament… All in all, I like the first comment of this list
where the author says that there seems to be a negative
campaign against Federer. I agree with that….
Paul on January 31st, 2010 at 9:04pm

I’m amazed anyone can claim Nadal is the greatest player of this era, ahead of Federer, as Olivia has above.

Federer is simply incredible.
Bobby NZ on February 4th, 2010 at 10:15pm

The reality is – for those who chose to look at it objectively – is that Nadal’s record against Federer doesn’t show the full picture.

It is because of Federer’s amazing versatility and that he gets deeper into clay-court tournaments that he encounters Nadal on Nadal’s favourite surface. But the same does happen the other way around. For the last 4 years straight Nadal has performed poorly in the post-Wimbledon season on hard-courts. It is because Nadal gets knocked out earlier in this part of the season that Federer misses the chance to play Nadal more often on what could be called Federer’s ‘home ground’ court.

As an example consider their career head-to-head. Nadal leads 13-7 which looks pretty dominant for sure.

Clay however is where Nadal picks up most of his wins over Fed – with a 9-2 record…

On hard-courts they are 3-3 (where Federer has won 9 of the last 12 grand slams on hard court, Nadal only 1)

On grass Federer is ahead 2 – 1 (Federer has won 6 of the last 7 slams on grass, Nadal only 1)

Even moreso, in 2008 people were talking about how Nadal was catching up etc in terms of GS performances.. yet Federer is actually still pulling away, having won three slams since Nadal last won one. (injured or not, you have to be there to play – if you’re not it doesn’t diminish the winner’s achievement)
Tommy C on February 5th, 2010 at 11:34am

It’s not over, but the best may be over.

In 5 years time it will be Murray v Nadal…

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