Wimbledon 2012: Why Tsonga will cause an upset and beat Murray
The Tipster is backing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Novak Djokovic to win their respective semi-finals at Wimbledon on Friday
Following England’s disappointing Euro 2012 exit, the British nation is now pinning its hopes of silverware this summer on Andy Murray. But the Tipster is backing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to deny the world No4 his holy grail in the semi-finals of Wimbledon.
Our resident betting expert reckons the French No1 will be too good for Murray, who is sure to suffer from nerves under the spotlight at SW19, while also tipping Novak Djokovic to beat Roger Federer in the other last-four meeting.
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Andy Murray (4) v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (6)
Murray will feel that this is his best chance to reach a Wimbledon final since the British No1 faced Andy Roddick in the semi-final in 2009. He faces Frenchman Tsonga, who is playing in his third Grand Slam semi-final and second at Wimbledon. Murray holds the advantage in the head-to-head leading 5-2, and the Brit has won two out of their three encounters on grass, with his only loss coming in 2004 at Nottingham. They have met at Wimbledon once – in 2010 – with Murray coming through in four sets. Five of their seven matches have featured at least one tiebreak, and both men are serving impressively, with two tiebreaks in their respective quarter-final matches. The Tipster is predicting a tiebreak in the match at 4/9, while those feeling more adventurous might fancy a tight first set to result in a tiebreak at 12/5.
Bet365 odds
One of Murray’s key strengths is his ability to break his opponent’s serve – he had done it 24 times in his five matches at SW19. However, Tsonga will prove to be his toughest test yet, and the sixth seed is capable of combining the sublime with the ridiculous in equal measure, while always being very aggressive, particularly behind his own serve. Tsonga has only been broken four times in his five matches, while Murray has lost his serve seven times. The pressure is on Murray with Rafael Nadal out of the draw, and memories of his loss to Roddick are sure to come to the fore. The Frenchman’s big serving, aggressive ground strokes and impressive tiebreak play may prove to be Murray’s downfall, particularly if he is too passive. The Tipster reckons Tsonga looks excellent value to win the first set and win the match at 11/4.
Bet365 odds
Novak Djokovic (1) v Roger Federer (3)
Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic meet on Friday for the 27th time, and Federer leads the current world No1 14-12 on head-to-head. But more significantly, the Serb has won six of their last seven encounters. Surprisingly, they have never met on grass before. Federer had an awkward passage through to the semi-finals, with Julien Beneteau taking him to five sets, and the Swiss then overcoming a back injury to beat Xavier Malisse in four sets. Djokovic’s route has been more straightforward, with only Radek Stepanek managing to take a set off him. The Tipster reckons Federer to win the first set but lose the match is outstanding value at 9/2.
Bet365 odds
Djokovic’s strengths not only lie in his ability to hit big serves and winners, but also his return. He has broken his opponents 26 times in his five matches, but Federer eclipses his rival with 31 breaks at SW19. Federer’s strength is his ability to mix up his game, combining fearsome serves and winners with drop shots, slices and volleys, but he is likely to leak more errors than his opponent, particularly on the backhand side. Federer has also shown his lack of ruthlessness in recent times, particularly against Djokovic. He failed to convert two match points at the US Open last year, and he broke Djokovic early in the French Open last month, only to lose the first set. He also failed to serve out the second set to level the match and eventually lost in straight sets. The Tipster feels Djokovic has Federer’s number considering their recent history – two of their last three meetings have seen the Serb come through in five sets – and the same to occur on Friday is great value at 5/1. 
Bet365 odds
Wimbledon 2012 Live Streaming: Watch all the action at SW19 unfold on your computer by opening a bet365 account today
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