Betting tips: Get enhanced odds 33/1 on Jordan Spieth to win US Open

Shane O'Hara tips Jordan Speith to win the US Open, and Paddy Power are offering new customers 33/1 enhanced odds on the American to triumph

The Tipster
By The Tipster
Can Jordan Spieth triumph at Chambers Bay? Our Tipster thinks so Photo: Jordan Spieth/Twitter

Statistics have become critical in modern day sport.

From a betting perspective, golf is one sport in particular where we can use the relevant data to our advantage as punters.

Anyone without at Paddy Power account can get 33/1 enhanced odds on Rory McIlory or Jordan Spieth or treble odds on any other golfer by signing up for one through this link before 15:00 BST on Thursday afternoon.

enhanced odds

A key stat we would usually consider is a player’s track record on any particular course. Which is why picking a winner for this year’s US Open is a particularly tough task as 95% of the field have never played a competitive round there before.

Opened in 2006, Chambers Bay is an exposed links course located in the north-west US state of Washington, 20 miles from Seattle. So, what are the key attributes required to succeed at Chambers Bay and how can we build a shortlist of possible winners?

Golf’s major winners circle seems to have found some stability and consistency again after the streak of new winners over a four-year period after Tiger Woods won his last major, his dramatic playoff win at the 2008 US Open.

The market leaders are tightly bunched, filled with more proven winners than a decade ago when Tiger was still relative value to win events at 6/4. The days of the outsiders 66/1+ shots are gone for a while I’m afraid.

With so few of the players having played competitive golf at Chambers Bay before, a course knowledge and ample practice rounds are crucial. US Open courses are traditionally parkland courses whereas this course will play much more like a British Open track.

So past results in our Open should be given extra consideration over previous US Open results when taking a player’s major history into account. The fairways are wide and forgiving to the long but less accurate hitters (not quite forgiving or wide enough for Tiger these days unfortunately) so big hitters will have a massive advantage over the shorter guys.

Accuracy off the tee really isn’t crucial here, but distance is. The winner will more than likely come from 1 of the top 12 players in the betting (all of whom rank highly in driving stats), legitimate arguments could be made for any of the below players.

Paddy Power prices (paying each-way top-six)

Jordan Spieth 8/1, Rory McIlroy 8/1, Phil Mickelson 16/1, Justin Rose 16/1, Dustin Johnson 18/1, Rickie Fowler 18/1, Jason Day 28/1, Bubba Watson 28/1, Henrik Stenson 28/1, Hideki Matsuyama 35/1, Jimmy Walker 35/1.

Anyone without at Paddy Power account can get 33/1 enhanced odds on Rory McIlory or Jordan Spieth or treble odds on any other golfer to win US Open by signing up for one through this link before 15:00 BST on Thursday afternoon.

enhanced odds

Eliminate

Jimmy Walker Big hitter but no consistency in recent months after an amazing start to the season.

Adam Scott Great ball-striker but changing putters on a weekly basis totally rules him out. Sadly, I don’t expect to see him come the weekend.

Henrik Stenson Another great hitter but wilts away too often from great positions in Majors.

Bubba Watson Massive driver but the linksy feel will not suit his game. Expect to see plenty of sulking.

Jason Day As good as anyone in the world on his day but too man injury problems/bad excuses of late rule him out.

Rickie Fowler Amazing victory at The Players but having a poor season overall. Talk of him in the McIlroy/Spieth bracket a little premature. Class act but doesn’t seem as focused as last season.

Justin Rose Former US Open winner but has a poor record with Open links golf and am staying clear.

Rory McIlroy Will have plenty of support but a struggle to put four decent rounds together lately coupled with the fact he is only playing two or three practice rounds before the start suggests he may be poorly prepared.

And then there were four

Phil Mickelson All the pre-season talk was about McIlroy’s Grand Slam but Mickelson has an opportunity to complete his own personal Grand Slam first. A fraction short at 16/1 but showed plenty of signs last weekend that he is hitting form at the right time. Has been second is this event a record 6 times and weather conditions are expected to be similar to his victory at Muirfield in 2013.

Dustin Johnson Longest driver on tour but crucially his scrambling and putting stats have improved considerably since his forced sabbatical from the game. Seems in a good place mentally and course setup is very similar to Whistling Straits where he controversially missed out on a play-off in the 2010 USPGA.

Hideki Matsuyama Another player who features very highly in all the most crucial stats on the PGA Tour. A few top-five finishes in his short major career and impressed in his Open appearances. Played the course a number of times during the spring so should be more familiar with it than most. Only one PGA tour win to date but too consistent not to win a big one soon and great value at 35/1. He will be in strong contention come Sunday.

Jordan Spieth It is easy to pick a favourite as a recommendation but 8/1 (33/1 enhancement for new Paddy Power customers here) seems slightly generous price when you consider some of the factors in Spieth’s favour this weekend. He has carried on from his record-breaking Masters success with a string of solid top 10 performances, with remarkably consistant stats in crucial fields to boot. Spieth is one of the few in the field that has played this course competitively before (US Amateur 2010) and course knowledge will be a key factor whoever wins on Sunday night. Another positive in Spieth’s favour is that his caddy, Michael Greller, is a member of Chambers Bay and spends much of his free time playing there. There won’t be a man on the course all week who knows it better that Spieth’s caddy. A total lack of negatives in Jordan’s credentials as a potential champion make him the obvious choice as winner in my opinion.

Anyone without at Paddy Power account can get 33/1 enhanced odds on Rory McIlory or Jordan Spieth or treble odds on any other golfer to win US Open by signing up for one through this link before 15:00 BST on Thursday afternoon.

enhanced odds

Recommendations

Jordan Spieth 3.5pts Win 8/1 (33/1 enhancement for new Paddy Power customers here)

Hideki Matsuyama 1.5pts E/W 35/1

Phil Mickelson 1pt Win 16/1

Dustin Johnson 1pt Win 18/1

Others

Ernie Els 0.25pts E/W 200/1 Fell apart midway through the Masters after a great start but playing quite well of late and has a great links game. Could place.

Lee Westwood (1st round leader: 0.5 pts E/W 80/1) Always a fast starter, sadly not a very good finisher!

Anyone without at Paddy Power account can get 33/1 on Rory McIlory, 33/1 on Jordan Spieth or treble odds on any other golfer to win US Open by signing up for one through this link before the race at 15:00 BST on Thursday afternoon.

enhanced odds

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