The records and achievements were stacked against the two 20-year-olds in Indian Wells who had set their own personal milestones simply by reaching the semi-finals: The 19-ranked Daria Kasatkina and the 44-ranked Naomi Osaka.
Neither woman had ever made it this far in any Premier Mandatory let alone the BNP Paribas Open. But by the final weekend, both had taken seed after seed—and more—in their strides to set a youthful title match.
Osaka had the ill fortune to draw the still-unseeded former champion Maria Sharapova in her opener. It proved to be ill fortune for Sharapova, and a straight-sets win for the charismatic Japanese woman. Osaka then disposed of Agnieszka Radwanska and one of last year’s No1s, Karolina Pliskova, to reach the biggest final of her career and a guaranteed career-high ranking of 26—No21 if she went on to win her first title, singles or doubles.
As for Kasatkina, her huge and varied talent had been clear from her teenage year: she already had the title in Charleston a year ago while still ranked 42, and had since gone on to top the biggest hurdles out there.
Try this. With her fourth-round finish at the US Open last year, she would begin a run of wins over all four reigning Major champions—French Open winner Jelena Ostapenko, Wimbledon champ Garbine Muguruza, US winner Sloane Stephens, and Australian champion Caroline Wozniacki, plus current No1 Simona Halep. And in Indian Wells this week she beat former No1, and one of the form players of 2018, Angelique Kerber, and last night, the mighty Venus Williams in one of the matches of the year so far, her fourth straight top-20 win of the tournament.
It guaranteed a new career high of No11, and No9 should she win the title. It also made her the youngest Indian Wells women’s finalist since Ana Ivanovic in 2008, until Osaka demolished Halep, 6-3, 6-0, in just 63 minutes: The American resident is the younger by five months.
Osaka summed up the imminent final, a first-time meeting between the two young stars, perfectly:
“I feel like we’re a new generation that is trying to push through.”
Not quite accurate, perhaps. The results they have posted this fortnight suggest these two have already pushed through. For their achievements have been all the more impressive for what was stacked against them in the semis.
Compared with Kasatkina, the evergreen 37-year-old Williams had 49 singles titles, seven of them in Majors, 22 doubles titles, Olympic golds, Fed Cup, and WTA Finals. And like her semi-final opponent—a generation younger—had not dropped a set thus far.
But if either woman was expecting that to continue in this their third meeting, they should not have done so. Both previous matches, in 2016, went the full distance and then some. The youngster came back from a set down to win in Auckland, 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-3, and Williams retaliated at Wimbledon, 7-5, 4-6, 10-8. This would be just as close.
Kasatkina got the early break, but Williams levelled for 3-3 and continued her run to lead 5-3 with aggressive cuts at the ball. The young Russian was undeterred, using her touch and tactical smartness to drop shot and get the break back, but Williams broke again for the set, 6-4.
That drop-shot variety earned Kasatkina a quick break in the second set, but again Williams hammered back to level, 3-3, as the Russian’s serve buckled with a double fault. But this time, Kasatkina broke straight back and held for 5-3 in a 13-minute game, and went on to serve it out, 6-4.
In the final set, it was Williams who stole the early lead, 2-0, and Kasatkina who broke straight back. They remained on level peggings to 5-5, but by now the oldest woman in the draw began to look weary as she battled to hold serve. Williams double faulted twice to hand the decisive break to the Russian, who served out her victory after two hours 50 minutes.
Kasatkina’s words, or lack of them, said it all:
“Match like this, you’re just speechless… Too many emotions and you cannot explain everything… Sometimes I was even smiling on the court… you just catch yourself—you’re in night session, you’re playing against a legend, and you are in the third set. And you’re like, ‘Come on, maybe it’s the moment of your life.’”
And maybe it was, though maybe tomorrow’s final will supplant it, as this exciting and likeable young player will be the slight favourite between the two 20-year-olds.
Osaka sailed past a below-par Halep as the No1 leaked errors to concede nine straight games, but the Romanian will retain the No1 ranking as the tour heads to the next Premier Mandatory in Miami. Will she watch this most intriguing final? Perhaps not, but many, many tennis fans certainly will.