Roger Federer: Trying to explain the unexplainable in Dubai

It’s the morning after the night before, the night when Roger Federer, a seven-time Dubai champion and winner here of 48 matches for just five losses, did the unexplainable. He lost to a qualifier, and in an unusually dramatic style.

The Swiss star was appearing in his 13th Dubai draw and had not lost in the tournament since a semi-final exit in 2013. He was expected, by fans and experts alike, to at least make the semis again, where he could face the top seed Andy Murray.

But that prediction did not take into account the man ranked 117 who stood in his path in Round 2, Evgeny Donskoy. After all, Federer had only ever lost to a qualifier three times in his entire senior career—a span of 1,334 matches.

The 26-year-old Russian was about to play only his 101st main-tour match—and he had won only a third of the previous ones. Before arriving in Dubai, he had lost in the first round of three Challenger tournaments, failed to qualify for Doha and the Australian Open, and his first-round match in Dubai was only his second win of the year.

Yet he was about to cause perhaps the biggest upset in the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championship’s 25-year history.

The Swiss stormed to a one-set lead, even so giving up a break when serving at 5-1. He withstood growing pressure from the Russian in the second set, saving a set point at 4-5, and took a 5-2 lead in the tie-break. Three match points would come and go, but Federer failed to convert and would be forced to play a third set.

In that set, the champion raced ahead 5-2—it seemed only to be expected—until he was broken back as he served for the match. Not content with that, he was broken again as errors flew from his racket, but he saved the situation by breaking straight back to reach a tie-break.

Once more, the safe money was on Federer, especially when he took a 5-1 lead—but he would not win another point.

It had been two hours, two minutes and two seconds of inexplicable twists and turns. However, in the subdued, overcast light of Thursday morning, with the plangent voice of Van Morrison drifting around the still-deserted grounds of the tennis centre, the picture began, here and there, to pull into focus.

Much of the explanation came in the immediate aftermath of Federer’s loss in own words. Still sweating from his efforts, still slumped in disappointment, he initially found reasons hard to come by:

“Don’t know where to start, really… I had my chances. I should somehow close it out. Don’t know how it got away, but he did very well… yeah, it’s a rough one, for sure.”

He then added: “Look, it could be anything right now. It’s tough to judge this one, because I could have won in two and I’d be already almost hitting the pillow thinking about Pouille. But now here I’m explaining what didn’t go well. Clearly can become quite negative about it, but I won’t.”

But piece by piece, the puzzle began to resolve. The expectations had, of course, been high because of Federer’s extraordinary come-back from a six-month lay-off and from surgery a year before to win the Australian Open, almost five years after his last Grand Slam title. But such an effort, especially at the age of 35, takes a toll, and he had himself stressed ahead of the Dubai tournament: “I don’t see myself as the favourite here.”

He went on: “It’s probably going to take until April to feel my best—after Miami I will know where I’m at. There’s still some work in progress for me. Getting to understand how my body will react, how much load the body can take.”

Seen alongside that assessment, his post-Donskoy comments fell into place:

“Yeah, timing was off for me today. Legs also felt slower out here tonight. I did feel tired all day. I tried to get myself in shape and warm up properly, do all the things I always do… I just think it’s still the beginning of the comeback…

“I’m happy I got over the injury I sustained at the Australian Open. Maybe didn’t allow me to practise as much as I was hoping to in Switzerland, but at the same time also needed the rest.”

It seemed worth pressing him a little on his physical condition—and it proved revealing.

“Yes, I’ve moved better around the court, and felt more explosive and all that stuff. I just never really got going tonight and sort of felt heavy. But look, those matches happen, where you got to somehow find a way to come through. Tonight, I just didn’t.”

But the same question elicited another surprising explanation—or perhaps admission is a better word. Had he, on top of everything else, been a victim of a schoolboy tennis error, of underestimating his opponent?

It is something of a mantra in tennis: never look beyond the next round. Players and their teams are fastidious in scouting unfamiliar players, and certainly Donskoy was that. He and Federer had never played before, and while the Russian would no doubt have seen plenty of Federer’s tennis over the years, the reverse was not the case.

Federer had already referred to his state of mind for his opening match against the altogether tougher Benoit Paire: “Commitment in tennis is a big thing. In the first round, I was. Today I wasn’t, really. Sort of a feeling you get and it trickles in an entire game.”

But then, unprompted, he continued from talking about his physical shape to his lack of knowledge of his opponent.

“I think what also carried through the whole match is like, I just didn’t know Donskoy. So many times, I just didn’t know what his patterns were. I didn’t know what his preferences are, and if he does hit a big forehand down the line, is that normal or is that just right now? Is he going to do that on big shots, big points or not?”

He was, so Federer’s persistence in firing at that wing was punished, and the Swiss began to leak errors at crucial points. And that, in turn, cranked up the pressure.

He admitted, finally: “All that stuff got me a little bit tense, and I could never quite play freely.”

So even the best, it seems, can come unstuck against the uninhibited tennis of a player with nothing to lose. And that is rather reassuring for the rest of us. As Van the Man says:

“From the dark end of the street,

To the bright side of the road.”