Wimbledon 2017: Can world No1 Andy Murray defend title against chasing Nadal, Djokovic and Wawrinka?

Can Andy Murray fight off the stiff competition from the likes of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka at Wimbledon?

By Marianne Bevis at Wimbledon
Saturday 1 July 2017, 00:11 UK

Andy Murray is the top seed and defending champion at Wimbledon Photo: AELTC / Florian Eisele

John McEnroe, at the unveiling of the Laver Cup just a day before the draw for this year’s Championships at Wimbledon, made no bones about it.

“All of a sudden, I’m assuming Roger’s going in as the favourite, and Rafa’s right up there as well. It’s unbelievable.”

He referred to seven-time champion Roger Federer and two-time champion Rafael Nadal, the two men who head the Race to London and are seeded Nos 3 and 4 at Wimbledon this year.

Far from an “unbelievable” concept, of course, were it not for the context of the last 12 months.

“Unbelievable” Federer

Federer had knee surgery after reaching the Australian Open semis last year, and played just 18 more matches before pulling out of the rest of the season after a fall in his semi-final on this very grass. But the rested and recuperated 35-year-old Swiss returned rejuvenated, won his 18th Major in Australia, then the toughest Masters double, Indian Wells and Miami, and after a 10-week break, won his ninth Halle title.

No wonder he was already close to qualifying for the World Tour Finals and back among the top four seeds at the tournament he loves above all other. Add into the equation that Federer is the only one of the four to have won a grass title this summer—a record-extending 16th—and he is probably more than just McEnroe’s pick for the title.

“Unbelievable” Nadal

Nadal’s story had been just as “unbelievable”. Last year, he was forced to retire from the French Open with a wrist injury, would not play again until the Olympics, and then played just 10 more matches before pulling the plug on the season.

Yet come 2017, it was he who faced Federer in the Australian and Miami finals, and cut his way through the clay swing like a hot knife through butter: Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid and Roland Garros. And although he opted out of his grass warm-up at Queen’s, he has spent plenty of time on the grass of Majorca, where a new WTA tournament is now played, and played one exho in Hurlingham, losing to Tomas Berdych.

As McEnroe concluded: “I must say that what I saw Roger do in Australian was one of the all-time great achievements I’ve seen in any sport, and then Rafa came back and steamrolled the French and also looked like he was about 10 years younger.”

Big men will ask big questions of Federer and Nadal

Certainly form, fitness and confidence have not been in short supply for either of these former champions—but that is not always enough, especially as each should ultimately face in the semis one of the two men to have shared the last four titles at the All England Club, Murray for Nadal, Djokovic for Federer.

But both have picked up demanding quarters before they can even contemplate such a blockbuster semi-final line-up.

Nadal has drawn an array of big servers, several with proven prowess on grass. Young Karen Khachanov impressed in Halle last week to grab his first Major seeding. Nadal’s next seed could be Ivo Karlovic or Gilles Muller, who contested the final in s-Hertogenbosch. As for the quarters, that could bring Queen’s runner-up Marin Cilic, who has made the Wimbledon quarters for the last three years.

Federer’s quarter is also packed with pit-falls: Even his opener is dangerous in its unpredictability, Alexandr Dolgopolov. His first seed is grass serve-and-volley expert Mishca Zverev—though Federer beat him in Halle last week. The fourth round throws in John Isner or Grigor Dimitrov, who gave Nadal such a fright in Australia and is a proven grass-court talent.

To cap it all, Federer could face in the quarters the man who ousted him here last year, Milos Raonic, or the fast-improving Alexander Zverev. Throw in Djokovic in the semis and Murray or Nadal in the final, and Federer’s dreams of a record eighth title will need another remarkable performance.

Can Murray and Djokovic reassert four-year dominance?

The wise and experienced Rod Laver took a more cautious line than McEnroe when asked who was favourite for this year’s Wimbledon title.

“I guess there are always a few favourites. Roger having just won the last grass tournament, having had a good season so far, I would have to put him in the area—maybe not favourite but equal to three or four people… I think the draw plays a big part, and if you get a lot of players you maybe don’t like to play, I think that becomes pretty critical in the early rounds. If you come through those, you become a favourite in the second week.”

Laver clearly had Nadal but also Murray and Djokovic in mind: so what are their chances?

Murray lacks preparation but draw may ease him into second week

Coming into Wimbledon, the top seed will be buoyed up by memories of beginning a remarkable surge through the rest of the year to claim the No1 ranking. However this year he has suffered the after-effects, with his fitness also undermined by shingles, an elbow injury and confidence-sapping results. Perhaps surprisingly, his best result since winning his sole title in Dubai came on the clay of Roland Garros.

But a shock first-round loss at Queen’s, where he owned a record five titles, preluded more problems as he withdrew from exhibition warm-ups with a sore hip. And while he has been practising long and hard at Wimbledon, he has continued to carry a limp, too.

With just 21 match-wins to his name, and maximum points to defend, he could even lose that hard-won No1 ranking during the fortnight unless he reaches the final: Nadal, Djokovic, and the Briton’s possible quarter-final opponent Stan Wawrinka, all have the chance to dethrone him.

And Wawrinka is a particularly interesting case. He reached the quarters in 2014 and 2015, and has ambitions to complete his career Grand Slam—to the extent that he has brought Paul Annacone, former coach to Federer and Pete Sampras, into his corner. It so happens, too, that he beat Murray in his gruelling semi-final at the French Open.

Murray will need to be fit to keep the likes of Fabio Fognini and Jiri Vesely under control early on, but should reach a fourth-round meeting against dangerous Nick Kyrgios or Lucas Pouille. If he advances to the quarters, it is not just Wawrinka who looms: alternatives are two-time Wimbledon semi-finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and former top-10 big man Kevin Anderson, returning to form after injury problems.

Djokovic, the unknown quantity

That may be a strange comment considering that Djokovic came into The Championships last year looking virtually impregnable. And even though he lost in the third round, he went on to win the Toronto Masters and reach the finals of the US Open and World Tour Finals. But this year, his confidence seems to have drained with a series of surprising losses—like Sam Querrey and Denis Istomin—and tough draws—twice losses Nick Kyrgios, three times tough wins over Juan Martin del Potro.

Then the No2 seed parted company with his entire coaching team of a decade but kept his mind-coach, going on to appoint Andre Agassi for an unspecified period.

However, in what may be a stroke of genius, Djokovic steered clear of the bigger grass tournaments this month in favour of taking a wild card to the new ATP250 in Eastbourne. There, he has been tested by decent opposition but not yet by a top-20 player: His relaxed progress to the final could be just what he needed.

His Wimbledon draw has not been the kindest: Yet again, del Potro, now seeded, is a possible third-round opponent, and Martin Klizan is not the easiest of openers. Queen’s champion Feliciano Lopez or Gael Monfils come next, with in-form Dominic Thiem or former Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych, in the quarters.

First-round matches to catch

Verdasco vs Anderson; Kohschreiber vs Cilic; Youzhny vs Mahut; Thiem vs Pospisil; Gasquet vs Ferrer; Del Potro vs Kokkinakis; Federer vs Dolgopolov; Shapovalov vs Janowicz