It is 15 years since the Race to the accolade of tennis’s year-end No1 was decided at its season finale. This year, though, London remains the battleground for both the singles and the doubles No1 ranking.
And while the men in contention may have played just one match apiece, the story was already beginning to come into sharper focus by day three.
Defending champion Novak Djokovic, the No1 until a week ago after well over two years at the top of the pile, is separated from Andy Murray by fewer than the 200 points earned in each round-robin win: It is as close as that.
Neither man, then, can afford to lose more matches than the other, and if they should end up in the title match, quite simply, winner takes all: both trophy and year-end No1.
No pressure then.
Except that Djokovic has shown signs in recent months that the pressure of being near-impregnable for so long has been taking its toll—that along with the physical effort of finally closing the Grand Slam circle at Roland Garros this year.
His fight to that French Open title has been a long one, beginning arguably in his surge to the very top in 2011, when he won all three of the other Majors.
Since the start of that year, he picked up 11 Major titles from 17 finals. And through season after season, he has racked up remarkable win-loss statistics in matches across the board. In 2011, it was 70-6, the next year 75-12, followed by 74-9 in 2013. Last year, he won a personal best 11 titles with an 82-6 run. And even now, stressed or not, injured or not, he has won seven titles and won 62 matches.
All in all, that is a regime designed to test to the limit, but few have managed to live with him—until now.
For the first time, Murray has played and won more matches, played and won more tournaments, than the man who has been there almost every step of the way from the junior circuit to the very top.
Now, Djokovic has been caught and passed, and to crank up the pressure, it has happened just as the Serb was on the verge of two more big milestones. Should he win in London, he would equal Roger Federer’s record six titles at the World Tour Finals. Should he, as a result, end the year as No1, he would draw level with Federer and Jimmy Connors on five year-end No1 finishes—with only Pete Sampras’s six to equal.
Add to his catalogue of expectations that Djokovic has never lost to any of the three men in his group, that he is the only man in London to have ever got beyond the semi-finals, and that he had lost only one match during his current four-year title run here, and there was a lot to live up to.
As Federer said in an interview for The Independent in 2008, about being the hunted for four years at No1 rather than the hunter: “It’s not as though you get used to being No1 in the world… for me there is pressure at every tournament, from fans, sponsors, the media and not least myself. I expect a lot from myself. I try to give everything I have.”
That is a scenario that Djokovic has generally carried off with ease, but yes, uncharacteristic losses at Wimbledon and the Olympics, and injury concerns in Cincinnati and the Asian swing, served only to increase the pressure.
Come London, he bridled at questions in his first two press conferences, but did win his first round-robin match after losing a tough opening set. Now he needed the second to keep his No1 campaign alive, to keep one step ahead of Murray.
The big hurdle on a third day which had determined that Gael Monfils was no longer in contention but that Dominic Thiem was, would be Milos Raonic.
The good news for Djokovic was that a win would guarantee him a place in the semis. The good news for Raonic was that he was guaranteed a place in the semis if he won in straight sets. But saying it and doing it, certainly for the Canadian, were very different things.
Raonic, after an injury scare at the Paris Masters, produced some good tennis to beat Monfils, 6-3, 6-4. But then the big Canadian had only once won a set against Djokovic in seven previous matches. Indeed in their two matches in 2016, Raonic had won a total of nine games.
The omens, then were not good, but Raonic had upset the odds before this year. He beat Federer to win the Brisbane title, beat Stan Wawrinka to reach the Australian Open semis, and made his first Grand Slam final at Wimbledon.
Perhaps, too, the faster court on offer in London this year would help the cause of the 6ft5in big server.
It certainly looked that way for much of the early games of the set. Raonic cracked down serves to sail through his first games: now a 140mph delivery, now 138. In the sixth game, he held with two aces.
But more significant was that Djokovic was having to fight much harder to hold. Raonic fired a missile of a first point against the Djokovic serve in what would be one of his money shots, straight down the line—and then another. Djokovic faced and saved a break point and another deuce to hold, and in the third game, faced and saved two more break points.
It took them half an hour to play six games by which time Raonic had dropped only three points on serve.
Slowly, though, Djokovic began to find more rhythm and accuracy on his serve. He had a window in the eighth game at 0-30, but Raonic’s serve cranked up with a couple of aces, and as they headed to a tie-break, the Canadian pulled off a 143mph bullet, and affirmed the 6-6 scoreline with another missile.
Raonic got the early advantage in the tie-break, too, 3-1, but a poor choice of shot on a net rush and then a forehand long, and Djokovic had wrenched the lead, 5-3.
Raonic was not done: it took him three smash attempts, but he buried a ball for 5-5. A perfect lob from Djokovic and a down the line winner from Raonic and it was 6-6. In the end, it was two Canadian errors that decided the set, the last, against the odds, a double fault.
That seemed to release some tension in Djokovic and to tighten the arm of Raonic. At the first break point, in the first game of the second set, Djokovic broke, and then fought off a break point with a roar for 2-0.
But Raonic was not a spent force: Two winners, one on the forehand, the next on the backhand, and they were on level terms again. Djokovic responded immediately to break again, and this time consolidated with a love hold, 4-2.
Yet again, Raonic hit back, first with an ace, then a double fault and two more aces, and a wayward game with three straight errors from Djokovic handed the break back. This would go to another tie-break.
Just as before, Raonic stepped in with aggressive play to take the initial lead, 2-0, but by the time they swapped ends, it was 3-3, and some superb defence from Djokovic gave him match point.
Raonic’s serving percentage had dropped to 50 percent in this set, and the last point, a final second serve, was punished. Djokovic was through to the semis, 7-6(5) after two and a quarter hours: The two men were separated by just two points, 85 to 83.
Djokovic was quickly into press, and visibly less tense than after his first-match struggle.
“Well, it was a very close match. I think very few points separated us tonight. It really could have gone either way.
“I was fortunate to get through the first set tiebreaker. I was down very early in both tiebreaks tonight. But I just managed to stay committed and put pressure on his second serves. I had couple of looks on his second serves midway through, which helped obviously to get into the rally. I knew once I get into the rally, I have a better chance to win the point.
“Credit to him for really hanging in there, putting pressure, being aggressive, especially from the forehand. But, you know, I think I should have done better there. Again, all in all, two tiebreaks against a big server is a great win and great confidence boost.”
So Djokovic is the first man into the semis, and once again takes a marginal advantage over Murray, who plays his second match tomorrow.
And at this stage, there is little to suggest the two top men will not be the last standing come the final on Sunday.