Time is getting short for the elite women of tennis to seal one of just five remaining places at the season’s finale, the WTA Finals in Singapore.
The first three, Angelique Kerber, Serena Williams, and Simona Halep, bear rather less pressure, having already confirmed their places, but for most, there is no such rest.
Since the US Open, it has been wall-to-wall tournaments, and with six down, there are only six left—a maximum of three back-to-back—in which to garner points. And that makes performing well at the next and most lucrative, the Beijing Premier Mandatory, vital.
Who will be first past the post in Beijing?
Of the next five women ranked in Singapore contention, two came within touching distance at last week’s Wuhan Premier: No4 Karolina Pliskova and No5 Agnieszka Radwanska. And it will be an ill wind that does not propel them to qualification in Beijing.
Pliskova’s summer run to the title in Cincinnati and the final of the US Open has fanned her confidence, but in Wuhan, an on-fire Dominika Cibulkova halted her in the third round. As luck would have it, she has drawn the same first opponent as she had there in Lucie Safarova, so there are no guarantees: Their previous matches have all been close.
Radwanska looked sure of making the semis in Wuhan after racing to a lead over Svetlana Kuznetsova, but the Russian produced superb tennis to come back for the win. However, the popular Pole has a fine record in Asia, and at Beijing in particular: Not just champion in 2011 but runner-up in 2009 and twice a semi-finalist. She is also the defending WTA champion, but like Pliskova, she faces a rematch with a tough opponent as early as the third round, Caroline Wozniacki.
Closing in: the rest of the eight
Sixth in line for Singapore is last year’s runner-up and champion in Beijing, Garbine Muguruza, who lost ground in Wuhan. She survived a close match in her Beijing opener, and faces the prospect of Petra Kvitova, champion in Wuhan, in the third round. But the Spanish woman is a player for the big stage, but will the French Open champion find her best against one of the fastest risers of the last year, Yulia Putintseva, in the second round?
Cibulkova, seeded 10 in Beijing, worked her socks off in Wuhan via four three-setters—two of them in one day—to reach her fifth final of the year. This has brought her back from a four-month injury absence and a ranking of No38 last year to find herself in the frame for her first ever WTA Finals.
How much does she have left in the tank for Beijing? Like the other three semi-finalists last week, she does enjoy a bye before embarking on a decent early segment, opening against Alize Cornet. She is, though, in Radwanska’s quarter and Kerber’s half.
The last of the current eight is Madison Keys, whose consistently strong 2016 has taken her into the top 10 for the first time via final runs on all surfaces and with victories over a number of the remaining contenders for Singapore. She also made the quarters in Wuhan to keep her chances very much alive.
Last year, her Asian swing took her to Zhuhai, the last event of the year for players ranked between No9 and No20, but if she wants to take the next step up, she will have to get through a tricky draw. The second round could bring Jelena Jankovic, who won Beijing in 2008 and was runner-up in 2007 and 2013. The Serb also made the Guangzhou final at the start of the Asian swing. Keys’ first seed is scheduled to be the resurgent Kuznetsova, and she is in the Kvitova and Muguruza quarter.
The chasing pack
The 31-year-old Kuznetsova has won Beijing twice before, in 2006 and 2009, and beat Venus Williams and Radwanska to reach the Wuhan semis. After a final finish in Miami, plus the quarters in Rome, Montreal and Cincinnati, she is at her highest ranking in six years, at No7, and up to No10 in the Race—and she last qualified for the end-of-year finale in 2009.
The Russian, with a bye in the first round, has a straightforward second round before either Keys or Jankovic. But then she could face arguably the form player of the moment, Kvitova.
Wuhan saw the Czech take her first title in over a year with devastating tennis, beating Kerber, Johanna Konta, Halep and Cibulkova. It took her from No16 a fortnight ago to No11, and up nine places in the Race from No21 to No12.
The draw in Beijing, where she was runner-up in 2014 and a semi-finalist in 2013, has been reasonably kind. After an opening bye, she faces a qualifier or Madison Brengle, then either Putintseva or Muguruza.
Of course her chances of Singapore may come down to how well the women between her and the top eight perform. One of those is Kuznetsova—a possible quarter-final opponent—and another is Carla Suarez Navarro, who is aiming for Singapore for the first time after breaking into the top 10 this year. And there is also Konta.
Can Konta continue?
The Briton was barely inside the top 100 a year ago, but a breakthrough run from qualifying at the US Open was backed up by the same in Wuhan and Linz. She started 2016 with a semi finish at the Australian Open, and arrives in her first Beijing main draw after a quarter-final run in Wuhan ranked 13. More significant, she is No11 in the Race, having slipped one behind Kuznetsova this weekend.
Progress will not be easy. She faces Anastasija Sevastova, who beat her at the US Open, in her first match, and possibly Pliskova in the third round, a woman who has beaten her in all five previous matches, including two this year—albeit close three-setters. This is also Halep’s quarter and Kvitova’s half.
What of Zhuhai?
Konta, then, could instead make her end-of-year debut in Zhuhai, and she would be in very good company. Venus Williams slipped off the Singapore pace into No13, but is defending champion in Zhuhai. Roberta Vinci has twice made the semi-finals at what was formerly called the Tournament of Champions, and Sam Stosur has reached the final, as well twice being a semi-finalist at the WTA Finals.
Then there is Wozniacki, a former No1 who has played at the WTA Finals many times, but this year is on the cusp of Zhuhai qualification at No20. Such a position has been against the odds, since injury problems forced her down to 74 before a semi-final run at the US Open. She arrives in Beijing unseeded, but after winning Tokyo and making the third-round in Wuhan, she faces the prospect of a third straight contest against Radwanska—though she appeared to have an injury concern by the conclusion of the latter match.
Wozniacki, a former champion in Beijing, has a tough opener against Coco Vandeweghe, followed by Vinci, before a rematch with Radwanska.
Absent: Serena Williams, Kiki Bertens, Eugenie Bouchard, Sara Errani, Ana Ivanovic, Andrea Petkovic, Sloane Stephens
Remaining tournaments before Singapore/Zhuhai
This week: Beijing Premier Mandatory—champion points, 1,000
W/b 10 Oct: Tianjin OR Hong Kong OR Linz Internationals—champion points 280 each
W/b 17 Oct: Moscow Kremlin Cup Premier—champion points, 480
OR Luxembourg International—champion points, 280
Current Race rankings: 1-8 Singapore, 9-20 Zhuhai
1 Angelique Kerber (qualified)
2 Serena Williams (qualified)
3 Simona Halep (qualified)
4 Karolina Pliskova
5 Agnieszka Radwanska
6 Garbine Muguruza
7 Dominika Cibulkova
8 Madison Keys
9 Carla Suarez Navarro
10 Svetlana Kuznetsova
11 Johanna Konta
12 Petra Kvitova
13 Venus Willliams
14 Roberta Vinci
15 Timea Bacsinszky
16 Elena Vesnina [lost R1 Beijing]
17 Sam Stosur
18 Barbora Strycova
19 Elina Svitolina
20 Caroline Wozniacki
21 Kiki Bertens [not playing Beijing]
22 Caroline Garcia