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Indian Wells 2022: Can Nadal stay perfect in the desert? Will Barty’s absence propel Swiatek or Kontaveit to title?

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Important note: At the time of writing, five-time Novak Djokovic is in the draw at No2 seed, but it remains unclear whether he will be able to take part due to his Covid vaccination status and US entry requirements.

It may be March, and time for the first Masters of the men’s season, and the second WTA1000, but it does not seem five minutes since the most admired tour event outside the four Majors was showcasing the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

For the BNP Paribas Open was played only last October after a 30-month absence when the players’ most popular 1000 tournament was the first to feel the effects of the global coronavirus pandemic. It had to pull the plug in 2020, and a year later, the virus remained so rampant that the tournament was forced to postpone from spring to autumn.

But just six months on, the 2022 edition is about to reclaim its traditional March slot. And with its sibling in Miami in a fortnight’s time, it will bring the three-month hard-court swing to its usual climax before clay and grass move centre stage.

The setting is unlike any other: courts and sky of the deepest blue, set amid purple mountains, palm trees and the blooming gardens of this oasis in the Californian desert.

No wonder it is such a popular tournament with both players—helped, of course, by a $1.25 million prize and 1000 points for each of the singles champions—and fans, who enjoy two full weeks of both men’s and women’s elite tennis.

For this is a big tournament. Each singles draw comprises 96 players and 32 seeds—all of whom enjoy opening-round byes. It means that the remaining 64 have to win seven matches if they are to lift the trophy.

Absent former champions—and top seeds

So players with title ambitions have to be on top form and in peak fitness. And sadly, that is not the case for one former champion, Dominic Thiem, who has not played since retiring in the first round in Mallorca last June. Absent for nine months due to a wrist injury, he withdrew from both Indian Wells and Miami over the weekend, and will target the clay season for his return.

The woman who won the Indian Wells title in the same year, 2019, was Bianca Andreescu, who has not played since her early exit during the defence of her title last October, having also missed the whole of 2020 with a knee injury.

Five-time men’s champion Roger Federer continues his long rehabilitation from the latest of three knee surgeries: He has not played since last year’s Wimbledon, and his return is in doubt before early autumn.

At the time of writing, fellow five-time champion Novak Djokovic was included in the draw as the No2 seed. However, questions still remain about whether he will be able to participate due to his Covid vaccination status and US entry requirements.

“Novak Djokovic is on the tournament entry list, and therefore is placed into the draw,” the BNP Paribas Open said in a statement.

“We are currently in communication with his team; however, it has not been determined if he will participate in the event by getting CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) approval to enter the country. We will provide updates in the future as we learn more.”

Finally, in two late blows for fans, world No1 and recent Australian Open champion Ash Barty pulled out of both Indian Wells and Miami citing health setbacks, followed after the draw by the remaining top seed, world No2 Barbora Krejcikova with a wrist injury. Her place at the top of the draw will now be filled by the No33 seed, Alize Cornet.

Russia, Belarus and Ukraine impact

Following the invasion of Ukraine almost two weeks ago, Russian and Belarusian players will not be permitted to play under their nation’s name or flag—and that applies to some significant participants in both the men’s and women’s draw, who will surely find the political and humanitarian impacts resulting from the war very tough to handle.

In the spotlight are no fewer than four Russian men among the seeds, and topped by two of the most successful players of the last few months. Australian Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev became world No1 just a week ago, so is due to play his first tournament as the top-ranked man in Indian Wells.

His compatriot, No7-ranked Andrey Rublev, travels to the USA with a run of wins since reaching the Rotterdam semis: back-to-back titles in Marseille—where he was also doubles champion—and Dubai. And he was one of the first Russian celebrities to publicly comment on the war just days after the invasion: He wrote ‘No war please’ on a TV camera for all the world to see.

Also seeded are Sydney champion Aslan Karatsev, ranked 22, and Adelaide runner-up, Karen Khachanov, ranked 26.

On the women’s side, the stand out ‘unflagged’ player will be two-time former champion, Victoria Azarenka, who has also made public her despair about the conflict. The former world No1, current No15, said: “I am devastated by the actions that have taken place over the last several days against and in Ukraine.” She was runner-up at the tournament six months ago, a sign of just how at home she is in Indian Wells.

World No3 and second seed, Aryna Sabalenka has yet to recapture the outstanding form of the last couple of seasons, and since last year’s US Open semi run, has won just eight matches. Her best run in Indian Wells was the fourth round in 2019, but she has notched up some big-time results aside from two Major semis: she owns two WTA1000s among her 10 titles.

Other seeds from Russia include 24-ranked Veronika Kudermetova, runner-up in Melbourne and Dubai this season, 28-ranked Daria Kasatkina, who was runner-up to Naomi Osaka in 2018, and 32-ranked Liudmila Samsonov. And there are several other unseeded women scattered through the draw.

Ukrainian women have certainly been making a mark in the week leading up to the Indian Wells draw.

The 21-year-old Dayana Yastremska jumped 37 places to 103 after finishing runner-up in Lyon. Meanwhile, Elina Svitolina, a former world No3 is currently at 18, but has won several 1000 tournaments and made the semis of two Majors in the past. Her form slipped after lockdown, however, she has been front and centre when it comes to awareness of Ukraine’s plight, saying during last week’s Monterrey campaign that she wanted “to unite the tennis community” behind her country. With hand on heart, and wearing blue and yellow, she went on to say: “I’m doing my best to use my platform to try to invite people to support Ukraine.”

Expect to see a lot of blue and yellow on and off court over the next fortnight.

Defending champions

Cameron Norrie will hope to replicate the outstanding run he made in Indian Wells last October, all the way to his first Masters title. It was one of two titles from six finals last season, in a year that he began ranked 74, and ended playing at the ATP Finals. His form has already shown signs of returning in time for Indian Wells, too, as he followed his title run in Delray Beach with a final finish in Acapulco.

It so happens that Norrie’s first seed, Round 3, could be the man he beat in the 2021 final, Nikoloz Basilashvili. And it is a tough quarter, with the chance of Stefanos Tsitsipas in Round 4, Medvedev in the quarters and Rafael Nadal in the semis.

It was a not dissimilar story for the women’s champion, Paula Badosa, who won her first two titles last season in Belgrade and Indian Wells, having started 2021 ranked 70. She was soon putting strong semi runs together: Lyon, Charleston, Madrid, and ultimately the WTA Finals in Guadalajara, and now ranked No7, she has already won the Sydney 500 tournament this year.

However, Badosa finds herself in a tough quarter that includes the in-form No4 seed Anett Kontaveit, the equally in-form Jelena Ostapenko, and the most recent champion in 2022, the precocious 19-year-old Leylah Fernandez, up to a career-high 21 after winning Monterrey. All that, plus the winner from the unseeded match of Round 1 between former champion Naomi Osaka and former US Open champion and last week’s Guadalajara champion, Sloane Stephens.

Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek (Photo: Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships)

The women: Who’s in form in 2022?

With Barty bypassing Indian Wells, it is the popular young Pole, 20-year-old Iga Swiatek, who heads the WTA Race. The former French Open champion started this year with a semi run at the Australian Open plus the Doha 1000 title, and it took fellow hot player, Jelena Ostapenko, to halt her in a final-set tie-break in Dubai. Swiatek’s quarter is tough, though: with Sofia Kenin or Clara Tauson lined up for Round 3, followed by Kasatkina or Angelique Kerber, just to reach the quarters.

Ostapenko, like Swiatek with 14 wins this year, is another former French Open champion, and with her wayward serve apparently repaired, she became near unbeatable after the Australian Open: semis in St Petersburg, title in Dubai, semis in Doha.

In those two finals, it was the other top performer of the season, Kontaveit, who beat her to the title, and is third in the Race. It is a streak of form that dates back to late 2021, when, after the US Open, she won Ostrava, Moscow, Cluj-Napoca, and was runner-up at the WTA Finals.

Others to watch: Emma Raducanu, the only British female seed, is yet to hit the same form that took her to the US Open title, but it is only a matter of time she hits the ground running again; Former champ Osaka will be an unknown quantity, given how little she has played since last year’s US Open—but a clue will come after her tough opener against Stephens, who is fresh from the Guadalajara title; Simona Halep, a former champion and with one title already this season, must never be underrated; No74 ranked Chinese teenager Qinwen Zheng is 15-4 this season, up from 126 at the start of 2022.

2022 WTA winners on outdoor hard courts

Adelaide 500: Barty

Melbourne Summer Set 1: Halep

Melbourne Summer Set 2: Amanda Anisimova

Sydney: Badosa

Adelaide 250: Madison Keys

Australian Open: Barty

Dubai: Ostapenko

Doha: Swiatek

Guadalajara: Stephens

Monterrey: Fernandez

Former champions in draw

Paula Badosa [1 and defending], Naomi Osaka [1], Victoria Azarenka [2], Vera Zvonareva [1], Simona Halep [1]

Absentees from 32 seeds

No1 Ash Barty, No2 Barbora Krejcikova, No11 Danielle Collins, No14 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Also withdrawn:

Bianca Andreescu, Jaqueline Cristian, Camila Giorgi, Karolina Muchova

The men: Who’s in form in 2022?

Medvedev made the final of the Australian Open, and is 12-3 for the year, but since winning his 13th title at last year’s US Open, he has not won a trophy. He will retain the No1 ranking if he reaches the fourth round next week, which would equal his best in Indian Wells in four appearances.

Remarkably, it is Rafael Nadal, now age 35, who has been the outstanding player of 2022. The three-time former champion won only one match after Roland Garros last year, as he contended with a foot injury, but has yet to lose a match in 2022, 15-0, including the Australian Open title.

Rublev is second in line, with two titles and a 14-2 record—and that after missing his first tournament after contracting Covid. Dubai was his fifth 500 title, and while he has yet to win a Masters, he has made two finals last year.

Two other men with 14 wins include Doha champion Roberto Bautista Agut and Stefanos Tsitsipas, who reached the Australian semis and Rotterdam final, and has just joined up with Thomas Enqvist as coach.

However, a still younger player, Felix Auger-Aliassime, is 15-4 for the year, taking him inside the top 10 last month after victories in the ATP Cup (with compatriot Denis Shapovalov) and Rotterdam, the quarters at the Australian Open, and runner-up in Marseille. He will be one of the hot tip to win his first Masters.

Others to watch: Teenager Carlos Alcaraz, winner in Rio, inside the top 20, and 8-1 for the year; 20-year-old Jannik Sinner, who won four titles in 2021, is also now into the top 10, and 11-2 for the year after a quarter-final at the Australian Open; Andy Murray, playing with a wild card, Sydney runner-up, and committed to giving all his prize-money for the year to help Ukrainian children—expect a lot of support, even from the re-recruited Ivan Lendl to his box.

2022 winners on outdoor hard courts

ATP Cup: Auger-Aliassime, Shapovalov

Adelaide 1: Gael Monfils

Melbourne Summer Set: Nadal

Sydney Classic: Karatsev

Adelaide 2: Thanasi Kokkinakis

Australian Open: Nadal

Pune: Joao Sousa

Doha: Bautista Agut

Delray Beach: Norrie

Dubai: Rublev

Acapulco: Nadal

Former champions in draw

Rafael Nadal [3], Cameron Norrie [1, defending] [Novak Djokovic may be forced to withdraw before the men’s draw gets under way]

Absentees from 32 seeds

No26 Cristian Garin, No27 Roger Federer, No33 Albert Ramos Vinolas [No2 Novak Djokovic]

Also withdrawn: Dominic Thiem, Kei Nishikori, James Duckworth, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Jiri Vesely, Alex Molcan, Mikael Ymer