Across 14 years, just three current players’ names have featured on the honours board of the first Masters on the tennis tour in glorious Indian Wells.
And when three-time BNP Paribas Open champion Rafael Nadal, pulled out this year with an ongoing hip injury, that left only one. Roger Federer, five-time and defending champion, would take on the 95 other men as the top seed, and in the kind of blistering form that had him pencilled in as the favourite even before he reclaimed the No1 ranking in Rotterdam a fortnight ago.
But then the picture changed. With just days to go the draw, it was uncertain whether the long-absent fellow five-time champion, Novak Djokovic, would be in the field.
He was in North America for sure, training with Andre Agassi, but there was no confirmation about whether he would wait to return from his eight-month absence at the Miami Masters—the east-coast twin to Indian Wells—or would be ready to take the plunge in California’s oasis.
But while Federer was playing a charity event in San Jose, Djokovic had taken to the practice courts in the shadow of those purple Santa Rosa mountains: Yes, he was in—fit and ready to go after the minor procedure to a chronic elbow problem that forced him off the tour after Wimbledon, and left him still in pain after a punishing fourth-round loss at the Australian Open.
It is certainly a boost to the tournament, and the tour as a whole, for there continue to be many injury gaps aside from Nadal: Stan Wawrinka, still rehabbing his knee after double surgery last summer; David Goffin recovering from a ball in his eye in Rotterdam; Andy Murray, who resorted to hip surgery after six months off the tour and will not play for many weeks to come; Jo-Wilfried Tsonga also with another injury.
Add into the equation the return of Kei Nishikori, via the Challenger circuit, after five months away with a wrist injury, and Milos Raonic, who has won only two matches since last August as he works back from his latest injury last season, and the seedings have a very different look from last year. Back then, it was Federer who sat outside the top eight while Murray, Djokovic, Nadal, Wawrinka, and Tsonga were all seeded to reach the quarters.
These reversals of fortune are reflected in this year’s draw, too. Last year, Federer fell in the quarter of Nadal, Djokovic and the then 31-ranked Juan Martin del Potro, while top seed Murray shared his quarter with Tsonga. But this time, Federer sits atop a decent quarter while No10 seed Djokovic is with the now No6 del Potro, the lowly-seeded Nishikori at 22, and No2 seed, Marin Cilic.
In the event, Federer toppled four seeds, including Nadal and Wawrinka, to win the title in 2017. Can Djokovic, back eager and refreshed, do the same? Indeed, will the two great champions contest the Indian Wells title?
If they do, the winner will edge the record number of titles: six. If they do, Federer will either draw level with Djokovic in their head to head, 23-23—and score his only win against his rival in four attempts in the tournament—or Djokovic will extend his lead to two in one of the most compelling match-ups in tennis. And if they do, it will highlight the physical and mental prowess of both men in coming back from absence and adversity to prove themselves the best of the best.
Federer and No1
It took a slight change of schedule, but Federer opting into Rotterdam instead of Dubai once he had won the Australian Open stole a march on Nadal. That the Spaniard had to forfeit Acapulco to nurse his hip helped consolidate Federer at No1 without lifting another finger, but that could change, even without Nadal in Indian Wells.
Federer has to reach the semis to avoid losing his top spot back to Nadal, but his form should carry him through. He is 12-0 this year, plus a clean sheet at the Hopman Cup before Melbourne, and had just a light workout in San Jose to keep his wheels well oiled.
The statistics behind his campaign do not stop there. He is 64-5, with nine titles, since returning from knee surgery at the start of last year: three Majors, three Masters and three 500s. He is also the best performer on hard courts over the same span—93 percent wins—and is 57-11 at the BNP Paribas Open courtesy not just of five titles in the desert but two further finals and three further semis.
Are top-10 big men del Potro and Anderson ready?
Neither No9 Kevin Anderson nor No8 Juan Martin del Potro is a stranger to adversity.
Anderson was a fixture inside the top 30 by 2013, and made a clutch of finals by the time he won Winston Salem in 2015. But he would not win another until last month, at the inaugural playing of the New York Open. The reason? During 2016 and 2017, he had injuries to knee, shoulder, groin, hip and thigh, and resorted to ankle surgery in 2016.
Last season, he slipped to No80, his lowest position in seven years, but at 31 years of age, he has now made it to a career-high rank following his first Major final at the US Open, and this year, the finals in Pune and Acapulco, and that New York title. His is not an easy draw—Karen Khachanov and Nick Kyrgios are just two of the dangers in the early rounds—but it would not surprise many if he made his way past fellow big seeds Grigor Dimitrov and Roberto Bautista Agut to the semis.
Similarly, the ever-formidable del Potro is sailing into something like his old form, having overcome more injury and surgery than any player has a right to face. Since his breakthrough in 2009 to deny Federer the US Open title and reach No4, he has recovered from four lots of wrist surgery, twice been Comeback Player of the Year, and now returned from outside 100 to No8 with semi runs at the US Open and Shanghai Masters, the title in Stockholm, and a runner-up finish in Basel.
This year, he has reached the final in Auckland and won Acapulco via three top-10 players. Take care, then, any who stands in his way this week, though his first seed promises an exciting replay of his three-setter against David Ferrer last week. No wonder fans of Djokovic and Nishikori, possible fourth-round opponents, are cursing their luck.
Can Masters champions Cilic, Dimitrov, Zverev cash in?
It is a rare player outside the ‘big four’ who has managed to win a Masters title. Since 2010, only eight of the 63 have not been won by Federer, Nadal, Djokovic or Murray. Wawrinka and Tsonga have one apiece, but are not in Indian Wells this week, while Ferrer, only just making the seedings this week, is currently a shadow of his former self
However, Marin Cilic has proved to be a cut above. The Cincinnati champion in 2016 is also a Major champion, and reached the final of Wimbledon last July and Australia this year. Indian Wells has not been a happy hunting ground for the Croat, and he made the rather peculiar, and unsuccessful, decision to play on Rio’s clay before heading to the desert. But he may well rise to the occasion of being the No2 seed in a segment of ‘golden oldies’ with Viktor Troicki, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Gilles Muller, Gilles Simon, and John Isner.
Those other four Masters titles were all captured last year by a new set of players. Alexander Zverev, age just 20, won two, along with three other titles, to qualify for the World Tour Finals. And is not afraid of the big names: He beat Federer in Montreal, Djokovic in Rome, Cilic in Madrid, Wawrinka in Miami, and twice come within a hair’s breadth of beating Nadal—at last year’s Australian Open and in Indian Wells in 2016.
He is still unpredictable, but is evolving in strength and experience all the time. Were it not that he has drawn some crafty, in-form players in his quarter, he may expect a semi run at least, but a career-high-14 Diego Schwartzman, the steadily rising Kyle Edmund, followed by new top-12 Lucas Pouille, and another of last year’s Masters champions, Jack Sock, are all in his way.
As for Sock, he reached the semis in Indian Wells last year, but has yet to show similar form this season: one win in four events.
That leaves Dimitrov, arguably the most naturally gifted of the bunch, who last year marshalled his fitness, speed and flair into world-beating shape, taking not just his first Masters title in Cincinnati but the World Tour Finals title. He made the quarters in Australia and then the final in Rotterdam, despite arriving with a shoulder problem and picking up a virus during his stay.
Could this be his time to get back on track? Well he has yet to make it past the third round in Indian Wells, and with the firepower of Fernando Verdasco, then young star Andrey Rublev, followed by the ever-resilient Spaniards Roberto Baustista Agut, winner in Dubai last week, or Albert Ramos-Vinolas, the Bulgarian will be tested hard and early.
Is it time for the #NextGen to push open the door?
The under-22s have certainly begun to flex their muscles in the last 12 months. Even aside from Zverev’s outstanding youthful presence, titles have been picked up by some of the brightest new stars.
Top of the Milan pile is the charismatic Rublev, seeded for the first time in the big Indian Wells draw. He won in Umag last year, was runner up in Doha in January, reached his first Major quarter-final at the US Open, and has the confidence to take on all-comers, no matter their ranking.
Few will forget the super-athletic performance of Milan champion Hyeon Chung against his idol Djokovic to reach the semis in Australia, and he has made the quarters of three other tournaments this year. He is certainly one to watch in the top quarter, though he has fallen into a #NextGen segment that also boasts exciting teenagers Denis Shapovalov and Stefanos Tsitsipas, both at career highs.
Also in good form are Delray Beach champion Frances Tiafoe, and Taylor Fritz, who has a lot of Challenger success under his belt this year. And do not discount Borna Coric, who had knee surgery 18 months ago but has since picked off some decent scalps.
Just on the borderline between #NextGen and main tour, age 22, are the towering Daniil Medvedev, champion via qualifying in Sydney, and quarter-finalist via qualifying in Rotterdam.
Nick Kyrgios is a danger wherever he falls: He won Brisbane in January, and last year he beat Nadal en route to the Cincinnati final, beat Zverev to reach the Beijing final, beat Djokovic in Acapulco and Indian Wells, and had Federer on the ropes in Miami. So often let down by injuries, he is quite capable of beating a big draw if his body lets him.
Edmund, at 23, made his first Major semi in Australia, and seems now to be playing on a par with the likes of Dimitrov, Anderson, Chung and Sock. He is also ranked higher than his famous compatriot Murray for the first time. And that may spur him on to still greater milestones.
Previous champions in draw: Djokovic (5), Federer (5)
Potential seeds missing from main draw: No2 Nadal, No7 Goffin, No11 Wawrinka, No29 Murray, No35 Tsonga, No36 Richard Gasquet
Title winners so far in 2018: Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon, Medvedev, Bautista Agut (x2), Federer (x2), Mirza Basic, Roberto Carballes Baena (c), Pouille, Anderson, Dominic Thiem (c), Schwartzman (c), Khachanov, Tiafoe, del Potro, Fabio Fognini (c) [c = clay]
Wild cards: Tennys Sandgren, Ernesto Escobedo, Alex de Minaur, Bradley Klahn (OCS), Reilly Opelka (OCS) [OCS=Oracle Challenger Series]
[NB all seeds have a bye in Round 1, so first match is Round 2]
Top half
No1 seed Federer quarter
R2, Ryan Harrison or Federico Delbonis
R3, first seed, No25 Filip Krajinovic
R4, No20 Adrian Mannarino or No16 Fognini
QF, No12 Tomas Berdych, No23 Chung, No30 Pablo Cuevas, No5 Thiem
SF, No3 Dimitrov and No7 Anderson are top seeds
No3 seed Dimitrov quarter
R2, Verdasco or Guido Pella
R3, first seed, No27 Rublev
R4, No19 Ramos-Vinolas or Bautista Agut
QF, No11 Pablo Carreno Busta, No17 Kyrgios, No26 Damir Dzumhur, No7 Anderson
SF, No1 Federer and No5 Thiem are top seeds
Bottom half
No4 seed Zverev quarter
R2, Joao Sousa or Mikhail Youzhny
R3, first seed, No32 Raonic
R4, No21 Edmund or No14 Schwartzman
QF, No9 Pouille, No18 Sam Querrey, No28 Feliciano Lopez, No8 Sock
SF, No2 Cilic and No6 del Potro are top seeds
No2 seed Cilic quarter
R2, Marton Fucsovics or Troicki
R3, first seed, No31 Kohlschreiber
R4, No24 Muller or No15 Isner
QF, No6 del Potro, No29 Ferrer, No22 Nishikori, No10 Djokovic
SF, No4 Zverev and No8 Sock are top seeds
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