As in so many other places and on so many other occasions, the first and biggest Masters title on the tennis tour will be dominated by a very select group of players.
Only three in the 96-man Indian Wells draw have won the biggest and perhaps most prestigious ATP tournament in the calendar: Five-time and defending champion Novak Djokovic, four-time champion Roger Federer, and three-time champion Rafael Nadal. Only once in the last 13 years has anyone else broken that stranglehold: Ivan Ljubicic.
But make no mistake: Indian Wells is not unique. These same three men top the Masters title records across the board: 30 for Djokovic, 28 for Nadal, 24 for Federer. And in reverse order, they top the match-wins league at Masters level, too.
Extend the three to include Andy Murray—the ‘big four’—and their dominance during their combined continuous reign at No1 is even more startling. From the start of 2005—a round dozen years comprising 108 Masters—and only 16 have been won by a total of 11 other men—just six of whom are still active.
However, when the draw was made at this particularly beautiful tournament, which is played out in an indigo-and-green oasis against the purple Santa Rosa mountains, the current world No1 Murray was put—temporarily—to one side as the spotlight shone squarely on ‘the three’.
The quarter of champions
The reason was clear: all three former champions—No2 seed Djokovic, No5 seed Nadal and No9 seed Federer—landed in the same quarter. For although the latter pair contested the Australian Open title, their rankings had not yet recovered from their slide through long injury absences last year. It was, of course, always possible that the three could end up in the same half, but the chances of falling into the same quarter? Possible, yes, but certainly unlucky for all concerned.
Take Djokovic and Federer: They have not only won nine titles between them but contested the last two finals that the Swiss played in 2014 and 2015. They contested the semis in 2011, too, and theirs has grown into one of tennis’s great rivalries: for example, they played seven finals in Federer’s last full year, 2015.
Take Djokovic and Nadal: They have faced off four times in Indian Wells, sharing the honours in two finals and Djokovic winning two further semis.
But this year, Federer and Nadal could meet in the fourth round for the chance to play Djokovic in the quarter-final.
Not that the bottom-quarter trials stop there. Another Grand Slam champion, the formidable Juan Martin del Potro, also working his way back to form and fitness after his latest bout of wrist surgery, picked up a late seeding of 31, thanks to the withdrawal of Milos Raonic and then Richard Gasquet. Yet the draw gods determined he should fall into the same bottom section, lined up for Djokovic in the third round.
These two played only last week in Acapulco—a narrow win for Djokovic, and the last time they played at Indian Wells, in 2013, the big Argentine won in three sets.
Still not enough drama for the former champions? Well two of the best and brightest stars of the next generation, No15 seed Nick Kyrgios and No18 Sascha Zverev, make up the seeds in the bottom eighth. And where del Potro fell short of beating Djokovic in Mexico, Krygios did not: he won their quarter-final.
That those two young stars will first meet one another for the first time is enough to whet the tennis appetite: that the winner could then face Djokovic followed by Federer or Nadal is even more intriguing.
Not that Nadal and Federer don’t face big questions of their own before their scheduled showdown. Fernando Verdasco, riding high in confidence after his Dubai final finish last week, could set an all-Spanish third-round. These two met twice last year: Nadal won in Indian Wells, Verdasco won in five at the Australian Open.
Federer could meet No24 seed Steve Johnson or dangerous floater and former top-10 player Kevin Anderson, who is also working back from injury absences.
In-form Murray favourite to win first title
With all that drama packed into the opposite end of the draw, Murray is rightly the favourite to win through to his first Indian Wells title. This is his first time as top seed in a Masters, but his form is undisputed.
Beginning with his final finish in Madrid last year, he put together a 67-5 run, undefeated on grass, winning his second Olympic gold, and then unbeaten through the last five tournaments of the year. He claimed the No1 ranking with his first World Tour Finals trophy.
Perhaps the tiredness from that gut-busting effort lingered as he made a fourth-round exit from the Australian Open, and he subsequently confessed to a bout of shingles in the aftermath of that tournament before heading to Dubai. But he bounced back in some style to win the ATP500 event, making it 10 titles from his last 16 tournaments.
He has picked up a decent draw, though he will be wary of the fast-rising teenage talent, Frances Tiafoe as a potential third-round opponent. The 19-year-old last week pressed del Potro to a third-set tie-breaker in Acapulco and the American will have plenty of home support.
The biggest seed in the Briton’s eighth is No16 Roberto Bautista Agut, and then the quarters hold either David Goffin, who has scored some deep and impressive runs this year including back-to-back finals in Sofia and Rotterdam, or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Tsonga, Dimitrov, Thiem: ones to watch
Goffin is certainly up there when it comes to match-wins this season, but he trails three others. Top of the pile, and producing the kind of tennis that has made him a Grand Slam finalist and a two-time Masters champion over the years, Tsonga is back inside the top 10 with 17 match-wins and two titles, plus a quarter-final finish at the Australian Open—like Goffin.
Grigor Dimitrov, who is edging back towards the top 10 after a dip in form and confidence through the last year or so, has 16 wins to his name via two titles—Brisbane and Sofia—and a memorable effort at the Australian Open, where he came within points of beating Nadal in a marathon semi-final. He is in Marin Cilic’s segment and Kei Nishikori’s quarter—and the likes of Lucas Pouille and the Acapulco champion Sam Querrey plus two-time titlist Jack Sock are also in the mix—but the Bulgarian will fancy his chances of a deep run.
Dominic Thiem has been a man on a mission for a couple of years, and the 23-year-old won four titles last year to reach No7 in the rankings. A heavy schedule, though, took its toll, but this year, he has bounced back to win 14 matches and the Rio title. He finds himself in a big-hitting quarter headed by No3 seed Stan Wawrinka. The third round could bring John Isner or Gael Monfils, the quarters add Tomas Berdych and Ivo Karlovic to the Wawrinka mix.
Also mixing things up are Robin Haase and Philipp Kohlschreiber, who put on a good show in Dubai. But Wawrinka should be primed after his early arrival in Indian Wells following a first-round loss in Dubai.
Youth may have its day
Wild cards were given to a swathe of new talent, not least Tiafoe, the youngest player in the top 100, who will no doubt relish the chance for a shot on the biggest stage against Murray.
Taylor Fritz, last year’s ATP Star of Tomorrow, will play Benoit Paire in his opener to set a chance against Cilic. Stefan Kozlov, twice a junior Grand Slam runner-up, faces fellow Americans Donald Young and then Querrey. And 6ft11in Reilly Opelka took Goffin to five sets at the Australian Open, and is also in Murray’s segment.
Add in a clutch of 20-or-unders who have already made their mark in the rankings or with titles—Zverev, Karen Khachanov, Borna Coric, Daniil Medvedev—and the draw has plenty to showcase.
Previous champions in draw: Djokovic (5), Federer (4), Nadal (3)
Missing from main draw: No4 Raonic, No19 Gasquet, No25 Gilles Simon, No32 David Ferrer, No51 Marcos Baghdatis
Titlists this year: Dimitrov (2), Djokovic, Bautista Agut, Gilles Muller, Jack Sock (2), Federer, Victor Estrella Burgos, Zverev, Tsonga (2), Ryan Harrison, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Thiem, Murray, Querrey, Pablo Cuevas
Britons in action: No1 Murray, No41 Evans (career high), No46 Kyle Edmund, who could face Djokovic in R2 then del Potro in R3.
[NB all seeds have a bye in Round 1, so first match is Round 2]
Top half
No1 seed Murray quarter
R2, qualifier or Yen-Hsun Lu
R3, first seed, No30 Feliciano Lopez
R4, No16 Bautista Agut or No21 Pablo Carreno Busta
QF, No11 Goffin, No22 Albert Ramos-Vinolas, No27 Cuevas, No7 Tsonga
SF, No3 Wawrinka and No8 Thiem are top seeds
No3 seed Wawrinka quarter
R2, Robin Haase or Paolo Lorenzi
R3, first seed, No28 Kohlschreiber
R4, No19 Karlovic or No13 Berdych
QF, No10 Monfils, No20 Isner, No29 Mischa Zverev or No8 Thiem
SF, No1 Murray or No7 Tsonga are top seeds
Bottom half
No4 seed Nishikori quarter
R2, Evans or Dustin Brown
R3, first seed, No25 Muller
R4, No23 Querrey or No14 Pouille
QF, No6 Cilic, No32 Marcel Granollers, No17 Sock, or No12 Dimitrov
SF, No2 Djokovic or No5 Nadal are top seeds
No2 seed Djokovic quarter
R2, Edmund or Gastao Elias
R3, first seed, No31 del Potro
R4, No18 Zverev or No15 Kyrgios
QF, No5 Nadal, No26 Verdasco, No24 Johnson, or No9 Federer
SF, No4 Nishikori and No6 Cilic are top seeds