If the women’s draw in Indian Wells, replete with returning stars Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka, seemed ready to set alight the tournament in the desert, it turned into something rather different. Blazing, yes, but in a different direction from its previous champions and No1s.
It all began in the first round, with the charismatic unseeded 20-year-old star, Naomi Osaka, who had the apparent misfortune to draw fellow non-seed and titlist, Maria Sharapova. The young player did not hang about, beating her 6-4, 6-4, then handing an even swifter defeat to Agnieszka Radwanska, 6-3, 6-2. She beat No5 seed Karolina Pliskova in similar style, and if all that was not impressive enough, she downed the No1 Simona Halep, 6-3, 6-0.
Unfortunately for the Japanese-American, despite going on to win her first title, and a lucrative Premier Mandatory at that, her surge to No22 in the ranks was not soon enough to earn a seeding for the Miami Open.
For the tour is only half way through one of the toughest months of the season, the huge back-to-back marathons, the 96-draw challenges of Indian Wells and Miami. There is barely a chance to draw breath as the players hot-foot it to the opposite American coast, to Florida—where they have the extra challenge of adjusting from hot, dry desert to the hot and humid sea-level demands of Miami.
For a winner who is also unseeded, the challenge is even greater: No byes in the first round, meaning seven matches, and into Round 1 in Miami two days later.
As if that was not bad enough, she drew the most formidable woman possible for her opener. Not Sharapova this time, who pulled out with injury, but the eight-time former champion, Serena Williams.
Osaka and Williams meet for first time—in Round 1
The 36-year-old American was on Osaka’s wish-list to play, but perhaps not quite so soon. Williams, who made her comeback from giving birth in September, and subsequent medical complications, and playing with a wild card, may still not be at her peak, but if there is anywhere she will perform miracles, it is in Florida, and she now has two matches under her belt to get the competitive juices flowing. At least, she may have said to herself, I don’t have to face my big sister in the third round, as she did in Indian Wells.
But whether it is Osaka or Williams who wins, things get no easier. The second round brings one of the form players of the year, No4 seed Elina Svitolina.
Svitolina challenge
The Ukrainian 23-year-old racked up five titles last year—including big Premiers in Dubai, Rome and Toronto—and challenged for the No1 ranking, and she started 2018 in similar style. She already has the Premier titles in Brisbane and Dubai, and reached the quarters of the Australian Open, though she fell in the third round in Indian Wells. If she can get through that first match, she has a decent run to the quarters, though once there it could be a different story.
Kasatkina, Kvitova, Ostapenko fill tough eighth
Like Svitolina, Petra Kvitova began 2018 in fine form, with two titles and a 15-3 tally this season. She went on a 13-0 streak through Doha and St Petersburg, with six wins over top-10 opponents, but the work-load told with a third-round exit in Indian Wells.
This time last year, she was still recovering from surgery to her stabbed playing hand, and at the start of this year she was ranked 29. She is now back inside the top 10 for the first time in almost two years. It remains to be seen whether the Miami conditions take a toll—she has managed just eight wins through eight appearances—or whether she can exceed her only quarter-final run.
In this segment, too, are French Open champion, the 20-year-old Jelena Ostapenko, who is yet to catch fire this season. She lost in the third round last week, and this is only her second time in the Miami main draw: she lost her only previous match. So she could find trouble among some tough non-seeds, and then Kvitova or Kasatkina in the fourth round.
As for Kasatkina, one of the brightest new stars on the scene—but also missing out on her new ranking of 11, so seeded outside the top 16 at 19—she was not at her best in the Indian Wells final. The 20-year-old had put together a stunning run to the semis, barely troubled, only to run into the 37-year-old Venus Williams, who took her to three long, hard sets.
But the last few months tell her impressive story. With her fourth-round finish at the US Open last year, she would begin a run of wins over all four reigning Major champions—Ostapenko, Wimbledon champ Garbine Muguruza, US winner Sloane Stephens, and Australian champion Caroline Wozniacki, plus current No1 Halep. And in Indian Wells she beat former No1 Angelique Kerber, and of course Williams.
Hers is not an easy draw, but then that has not troubled the ambitious Russian thus far.
Defending champion Konta
The No11 seed Johanna Konta scored her biggest victory in Miami last year in what was her best start to a season yet. She had already won in Sydney, made the quarters at the Australian Open, went on to reach the final in Nottingham and the semis at Wimbledon to reach a career-high No4.
But since then, the Briton has struggled with form—not helped by injury late last year—and confidence, winning just eight matches in the interim eight months, and she made her latest loss in Indian Wells against the 18-year-old Marketa Vondrousova, No 54 in the world.
With so many points to defend, Konta may slip from the top 20 if she cannot recapture her winning ways. She has winnable early matches, but should she make it to the fourth round, she could face Venus Williams, with world No2 Wozniacki in the quarters.
Former champion Azarenka is back
Three-time former champion Victoria Azarenka was still on maternity leave last year, so unable to defend her title. She returned to play just two events on grass, and was then forced off the tour as she faced a custody battle for her son. She came back in Indian Wells, reaching the second round, and it would be foolhardy to take her lightly in Miami. Even so, she plays the talented Cici Bellis in her opener: the teenager took the first set off Azarenka at Wimbledon last year.
Azarenka is in a tough segment overall: Madison Keys in the second round, and also here is another returning wild card, Bethanie Mattek-Sands, after a shocking knee injury at Wimbledon last year. And she faces Alize Cornet in her opener. The survivor of this six-woman segment is then likely to face Halep or Radwanska.
Some things to watch for in Miami
· Can Radwanska break her poor run of form—she is seeded 30 in Miami—and work her way back among the elite? She is 1-3 in her last three events, and in a very tough section, but has made three quarters, a semi and a title run (2012) in Miami in the past.
· The sunshine double: Azarenka is the only woman in the draw to win Indian Wells and Miami back to back. Osaka will attempt to emulate her.
· No1 ranking: Halep cannot lose the top spot in Miami, whatever her result. She took the No1 rank back from current No2 Wozniacki after the Dane reclaimed it with her first Major win in Australia.
· And talking of Wozniacki, she has been solid since the Australian victory—quarters, semis and the fourth round in Indian Wells—and she was runner-up in Miami last year. She has a decent draw to the quarters, but can she get that winning feeling again?
· There are eight current or former No1s in the draw: two Williams, Wozniacki, Azarenka, Kerber, Halep, Pliskova and Muguruza.
· Kerber has already produced some great form this year, was unbeaten at the Hopman Cup, won Sydney, and made the semis at the Australian Open and in Dubai. She is 18-4 (not counting the Hopman Cup) on the season, and has a good draw in Miami.
Previous champions in draw: Serena Williams (eight), Venus Williams (three), Azarenka (three), Radwanska, Kuznetsova, Konta
Youngest: Whitney Osuigwe, 15
Oldest: Venus Williams, 37
Wild cards: Azarenka, Serena Williams, Amanda Anisimova, Claire Lui, Mattek-Sands, Osuigwe, Bernarda Pera, Ajla Tomljanovic
Missing potential seeds: Peng Shuai (knee), Lucie Safarova (illness), Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (shoulder), Dominika Cibulkova (illness)
Title winners so far in 2018: Svitolina (x2), Halep, Goerges, Kerber, Elise Mertens, Wozniacki, Kvitova (x2), Timea Babos, Alison van Uytvanck, Lesia Tsurenko, Osaka
Potential quarter-finals top half:
Halep vs Pliskova
Other seeds: Radwanska, Anastasija Sevastova, Madison Keys, Goerges, Kuznetsova, Sorana Cirstea
Also here: Azarenka, Mattek-Sands
Muguruza vs Garcia
Other seeds: Barbora Strycova, Magdalena Rybarikova, Stephens, Kerber, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Carla Suarez Navarro
Potential quarter-finals bottom half:
Svitolina vs Ostapenko
Other seeds: Shuai Zhang, Kasatkina, Kvitova, Kristina Mladenovic, Ashleigh Barty, Daria Gavrilova
Also here: Belinda Bencic, Serena Williams, Osaka
Wozniacki vs Venus Williams
Other seeds: Kiki Bertens, Elise Mertens, Konta, Coco Vandeweghe, Elena Vesnina, Anett Kontaveit
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