It is hard to recall a time when the last Masters event of the season was so pregnant with possibilities.
As the only indoor Masters of the nine gets under way, the first question is whether Rafael Nadal can regain his pre-Asian swing form to become the first player to win six Masters 1000 titles in the same season.
He has never won in Paris and only once made the final, in 2007. He was absent last year, off the tour with knee injuries, so can make plenty of points to solidify his run to the year-end No1 ranking.
Then there is the form of Novak Djokovic to consider. The Serb bounced back from his US Open defeat and the loss of his No1 ranking to Nadal with back-to-back titles in Beijing and Shanghai. He won Paris in 2009 but lost in his first match here last year, but that did not stop him going on to win the ATP World Tour Finals.
With Andy Murray missing injured, David Ferrer is the No3 seed, and after winning two titles at the start of the year, his hard-work and consistency have failed to yield another title from six further finals this season—two of them back-to-back in Stockholm and this weekend in Valencia. Yet it was in Paris last year that he won his first Masters title.
But the most compelling storyline is the one that ends in London. With just six days of tennis left, there are still three places left to fill—and no clear front runners.
As first-round Paris action gets under way, there is a mathematical chance for eight players to qualify.
No6 First in line, in sixth place, is Roger Federer: His failure to win the Basel title means he has now to win his first match in Paris.
No7 Second in line is another Swiss: Stan Wawrinka is bidding for his first place at the World Tour Finals. He could have qualified with a strong run in Basel but, having fallen in the first round, he will look for a couple of wins in Paris. How he does will, though, impact as much on the following pack as on himself: If he wins his first match, only one of Richard Gasquet or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can stay alive.
No8 Richard Gasquet, who qualified for the event when called the Master Cup in Shanghai in 2007, finds himself lined up against the No9, Tsonga, in the third round in Paris with the chance that only one will qualify (see Wawrinka above).
No9 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, three times a qualifier, will need to beat Gasquet in Paris—assuming Gasquet survives a very tough opener.
No10 Milos Raonic
No11 Tommy Haas: Must win Paris
No12 Nicolas Almagro kept his hopes alive with a semi finish in Valencia: Must win Paris
No13 Mikhail Youzhny jumped into the frame at the last gasp with the Valencia title: must win Paris
These permutations are made all the more complex by the way the draw has fallen. For example, not only are Gasquet and Tsonga in the same section but are likely to be competing for one place between them. Meanwhile Federer could face two potential qualifiers in a row: Youzhny in his first match and Haas in his second.
In the same half, Wawrinka could also play a fellow racer, Almagro, in his second match.
For each and every one of the eight, it is a bumpy road.
Nadal/Ferrer half
Nadal found his first seeded opponent, last year’s Paris finalist Jerzy Janowicz, a real handful in their only match to date. He beat the No14 ranked Pole 7-6, 6-4 in Montreal this year, but the young player who reached the semis in Wimbledon this summer has had injury problems since, though he recorded a semi run in Valencia this week, taking Ferrer to three sets.
But it is the other segment of this quarter that intrigues. Along with Federer’s in the bottom half, it is packed with top quality unseeded players as well as major players in the London race.
Gasquet could face the surging talent of Ernests Gulbis or another danger man, Fernando Verdasco, in his first match. Tsonga has a choice between Julien Benneteau, at his best on fast indoor courts, or the No18 ranked Kei Nishkori. If and when Tsonga meets Gasquet in the third round, they stand at four wins apiece—and this time with huge stakes.
Ferrer’s run to a possible quarter-final against Tomas Berdych looks reasonably untroubled—the highest ranking before the third round is Jeremy Chardy’s 36. The other seed, Gilles Simon, may find the serve and volley skills of Nicolas Mahut—who is enjoying his most successful season—too much to contain.
Along with the Verdasco-Gulbis first-round match, the other stand-out opener is Gael Monfils against Basel semi-finalist, Vasek Pospisil. Both have big, energetic games and are on rising curves. And either could be a challenge to Berdych—both have beaten him this year.
And so to Raonic, needing a good run here and possibly playing the tricky Denis Istomin first and then one of Pospisil, Monfils or Berdych. It’s an unenviable road to London.
Semi-final: Tsonga beats Ferrer
Djokovic/Del Potro half
For a set of men seeking to qualify for London, the top quarter of the other half is the draw from hell.
Federer will have to beat the winner between Youzhny, enjoying his best year and most wins since 2010, notably this weekend’s defeat of Ferrer for the Valencia title. He took Federer to three sets in the Halle final in June, too. However, the Russian has to play the No20 ranked Kevin Anderson first—a mountain of a task for Round 1.
Meanwhile, the other seed in this segment is Haas, but he too has a difficult opener in either Philipp Kohlschreiber or Andreas Seppi, itself a potential cracker of a first-round contest. Indeed this section of six has not one man ranked lower than 27.
It gets no less easy: For while Federer needs only get past one opponent to assure London, Haas needs also to beat a possible quarter opponent from between Basel champion Juan Martin del Potro, a returning Marin Cilic, No16 seed Fabio Fognini or Stockholm champion Grigor Dimitrov.
In the last quarter, the focus will be on Wawrinka and his potential third round against Almagro, though the Swiss has the dangerous Feliciano Lopez first, while Almagro will first meet the rising strength of Ivan Dodig or the Basel semi-finalist Edouard Roger-Vasselin.
There are three qualifiers in this quarter, two of them in the Djokovic segment. It should fall to Benoit Paire to play the No2 ranked Serb first, then the No13 seed John Isner.
Semi-final: Djokovic beats del Potro
Final: Djokovic beats Tsonga