The people behind the BNP Paribas Masters in Paris Bercy—the last main-tour event in the tennis calendar before the elite eight head to the World Tour Finals in London—must be counting their blessings.
This is the last of the nine jewels in the ATP Masters crown, the only one played indoors, and is so often the last chance saloon for the highest-ranked men trying to grab a place in London.
This year is no different, with no fewer than three men still having a chance of making the World Tour Finals. By the quarter-final stage, two of them remained in the draw, but their fates lay in the hands not just of their opponents but of each other.
On the line in Paris
· Eighth and final place at World Tour Finals: Possible first qualification for Dominic Thiem; French hopes resting on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga; Tomas Berdych needing just one win
· No1 ranking for Andy Murray—but fate in hands of defending champion Novak Djokovic
· Career-high ranking of No3 for Milos Raonic if he reaches Paris final
· Chance for Marin Cilic to end 14-0 losing streak against Djokovic
The big Czech or the flamboyant Frenchman?
Berdych, one place outside qualification, was able to move into the eighth London spot by winning one more match. He won here more than a decade ago, but had struggled to maintain his usual high standard since appendicitis took him off the tour before the US Open.
Tsonga, though, could beat Berdych to London if he won his home title, and bearing in mind that the charismatic Frenchman was playing some of his best tennis this year, and had won the Paris title from two final appearances, it was entirely feasible.
Tsonga would have to see off Raonic in the quarters, but could even come face to face with Berdych in the semis. But for the Czech, there was a big problem.
Murray on a mission
As if the battle for London was not enough of a storyline for Paris, the No1 ranking was also on the line. Such has been Murray’s form since beating Djokovic to win his first Rome Masters and then reaching his first French Open final that he went unbeaten on grass at Queen’s and Wimbledon, won Olympic gold in Rio, made the final of the Cincinnati Masters, went on a tear through Asia to win Beijing and Shanghai, and moved indoors with aplomb to win Vienna last week.
Now, he trailed No1 Djokovic by just 415 points, matched the Serb with seven titles and, after two impressive wins in Paris, was on a 17-match streak, with 71 wins for nine losses this year. If he could maintain his form in Paris, he could be No1 before the World Tour Finals.
There were two important hurdles on this quarter-final Friday: first came Berdych, and Murray had a fine winning record over the Czech, including their last five matches. Sure enough, after a tough first set offering no break points, and a 1-6 deficit in the tie-break, Murray worked his way back to win 7-6(9), 7-5.
Ultimately, though, Murray’s No1 ambition depended on Djokovic himself.
Defending champion Djokovic unbeaten by Marin Cilic…
… until now.
The super Serb, since achieving his biggest goal, winning the French Open to complete his set of Majors, had struggled with form and confidence—along with a couple of persistent physical niggles. Now, he was also under pressure for his No1 ranking.
On paper, Paris has been a tournament where Djokovic thrived: a four-time winner, and on a 15-match, three-year unbroken winning run, he came through a tough three-setter against Grigor Dimitrov to make it 17 matches in a row.
He also looked a cert to make the semis: He had, after all, a 14-0 winning record over Cilic, with a 12-set streak dating back to Wimbledon 2014. But the Croat was about to upset the Serbian apple cart.
Cilic sealed his own place in London for the second time by reaching the quarters, after regaining the form that won him the US Open in 2014. His confidence boosted by his first Masters title in Cincinnati and then winning Basel last week, he beat both Ivo Karlovic and David Goffin to set this 15th meet with Djokovic, and this time played with aggression and purpose to win, 6-4, 7-6(2).
Djokovic’s loss means that Murray will reach No1 come Monday simply by reaching the final: in effect, one more victory over either Tsonga or Raonic.
The PS in Paris: Thiem in the wings
It had looked for weeks as though Thiem would clinch his first appearance in London with ease. He surged up the rankings this year into the top 10 and beyond to No8 via four titles from six finals. But physical and mental fatigue have seen him win just two matches in his last four tournaments, including an opening loss in Paris against Jack Sock.
His fate, now, was in the hands of Berdych and Tsonga. Had the Czech beaten Murray, Thiem was out—but the Austrian’s hopes remained alive. If Tsonga went onto win the title, Thiem was out. He could only sit and watch.
Remember, remember the fifth of November
All across Murray’s home nation, fireworks will be the order of the night as Great Britain celebrates Guy Fawkes. How timely it would be, then, for Murray to become No1 on that very night: Fireworks seem only right.