With just one title still up for grabs in the tennis calendar, the opportunities for the many men who are still in with a chance of playing the ATP’s most prestigious event, the ATP Finals in London, are diminishing by the day.
Every loss at the Rolex Paris Masters can now wipe out the hopes of a bumper 11 names who were, on paper at least, still in the hunt for a place among the elite eight in little more than a week’s time.
Six men have been inked in for a while, led of course by this year’s Major champions, No1 Novak Djokovic and No2 Rafael Nadal. But while the top two seeds in Paris do not need the points for London, they may well have a key role to play in denying deep runs to those who are in need.
One has only to look at the last two ATP500s played last week to prove the point: Both Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem are already into London, too, but it was they who picked up the maximum points with the titles in Basel and Vienna. Federer halted Alex de Minaur, though the young Australian’s final finish catapulted him among the 11 hopefuls. Thiem beat two more, Matteo Berrettini and Diego Schwartzman.
So what do the final contenders need to do in this last week to nab their place?
· Defending ATP Finals champion Alexander Zverev and the newest man to break the top 10, Berrettini, hold Nos7 and 8, and are guaranteed a place if they reach the Paris final, though because they are in the same half, only one of them can do so. Their success will then come down to what their colleagues do.
· Next in line, at No9, is another possible debutant—at 31 years old—Roberto Bautista Agut, who can seal his place with victory in Paris, but he has drawn that young challenger de Minaur in his first match, who as the rank outsider, must first win the title and then hope that those ahead of him fall early.
· Three more men can also assure qualification with the Paris title. One is in Bautista Agut’s half, No11 in the Race, David Goffin, while the other two, Fabio Fognini and Gael Monfils, are in the bottom half.
· Stan Wawrinka and John Isner must win the title to stand a chance of qualification, but only if results from their rivals work to their advantage. And the Swiss, who has made the semis three times in London but has not played since 2016 following knee surgery, had to withdraw from his quarter-final match against Federer last week with back injury.
Such is the competition from top to bottom of the draw that the 11th man, defending champion Karen Khachanov, did not make it past his first match. So as Round 2 gets underway, there are just 10. [See below]
Battle for No1
The Race for London, though, is not the only one in town. For while top seeds Djokovic and Nadal are secure in their London places, that will not diminish their desire to win the last Masters of the year.
For Nadal, it could be his first title in a tournament that has proved more elusive than most for the Spaniard. He has made just one final, and that more than a decade ago.
Djokovic has had plenty of success in Paris, winning four titles from 2009 to 2015. He has the most titles and most match-wins, 32, in the tournament—a record that has stood him in very good stead for what follows. From 2013 to 2015, he went on to win the ATP Finals, too, and last year he reached the final of both events.
For Nadal, there are also significant parallels. The Spaniard has missed four of the last seven years at both the Paris Masters and ATP Finals, in the same alternating years, due to injury. This year, he has paced himself in the latter stages of the calendar more conservatively, playing just the Laver Cup since his US Open victory. Marriage earlier this month ensured he would omit the long trip to China for the Asian swing, so he is rested, fit and primed to end 2019 strongly. And he has two huge incentives.
For it is not just the Paris Masters title that Nadal has missing from his resume but also the Tour finale, and he looks in better shape to put that right this year than ever before.
Yet that is still not the only ‘Race’ on the line in the next fortnight. For while Djokovic has been No1 in the overall rankings since the ATP Finals last year, Nadal leads the Race and thus is in prime position to hold the No1 ranking at the year’s end.
He is already certain to reclaim the overall top spot after Paris when Djokovic’s runner-up points drop off, and that will make 33-year-old Nadal the second oldest No1 after Federer.
What is more, if Nadal wins the Paris title, he cannot be topped before the end of the year, even if Djokovic is runner-up again come Sunday. For they will be separated by more than the 1,500 maximum points available to an unbeaten champion in London. However, if Djokovic wins Paris—well, all bets are off.
All in all, it puts more records on the line for both men. A sixth year-end No1 for Djokovic would equal Pete Sampras’s all-time record for most year-end No1 trophies. Should Nadal be top of the pile come December, it will be his fifth time, and draw him level with Djokovic, Federer and Jimmy Connors, second on the all-time leaderboard.
So there is plenty to battle for this week, and not just by those 10 London hopefuls.
Race to London [including Round 1 points Paris]
Qualified
1 Rafael Nadal 9,235
2 Novak Djokovic 7,955
3 Roger Federer 6,190
3 Daniil Medvedev 5,705
5 Dominic Thiem 4,945
6 Stefanos Tsitsipas 3,830
Still able to qualify
7 Alexander Zverev 2,945 [incl R2 points]
8 Matteo Berrettini 2,670
9 Roberto Bautista Agut 2,540
10 Gael Monfils 2,360
11 David Goffin 2,335
12 Fabio Fognini 2,290
13 Diego Schwartzman 2,125
15 Stan Wawrinka 1,920
16 John Isner 1,770
17 Alex de Minaur, 1,575