By any measure, the elegant trophy awarded by the US Open has found itself in the hands of a small and very select band of the players over the last dozen years. Just six men have shared the honour with, since 2007, only one additional man making the final.
And while the most prolific of those champions, world No4 and five-time champion Roger Federer, is missing from the draw for the first time since 1999, all the others are present and correct.
Indeed all of them bar one are seeded No7 or above in this year’s draw, and the sixth man, Juan Martin del Potro, is arguably as strong a contender this year as he was when he won in 2009.
He plays in New York as a wild card to compensate for the low ranking that has followed multiple wrist injuries. But in Rio, the big-hitting Argentine beat both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, each of whom has two US Open titles to their name. Del Potro then very nearly pressed gold medallist Andy Murray, winner here in 2012, to five sets in the final. In bypassing the Cincinnati Masters, he may also have enough left in the tank for his New York campaign.
It has begun to look a similar story for Marin Cilic. Champion here in 2014 and twice a Major semi-finalist, Cilic at last won his first Masters title last week in Cincinnati, a victory that propelled him back inside the top 10.
2016 was, in fact, a confidence-sapping season for the Croat as he contended with a knee injury that forced him out of three of the six Masters tournaments thus far. But the seventh showed once more what a formidable array of power tennis Cilic owns.
Meanwhile, the man Cilic beat in that 2014 final at Flushing Meadows, Kei Nishikori, was sealing the top spot in the US Open Series, along with victory over Nadal in the bronze medal match in Rio.
Even so, Murray has a good case for being the favourite to repeat his 2012 victory in New York.
Since losing the final of the Madrid Masters in May, Murray had lost just one match, the final of the French Open, until coming up against Cilic in Cincinnati. Along the way, the Briton claimed titles at the Rome Masters, Queen’s, Wimbledon and the Rio Olympics, a 22-match unbroken streak and 33-2 since Paris.
He also became the first man to win two singles golds at the Olympics, won his 600th match, his 200th Masters match and his 50th match of the season. That he fell short of claiming his 40th singles title disappointed but also boosted Murray, as he explained in his pre-US Open press conference.
“It was hard, going from Rio to Cincinnati. I didn’t feel great when I was there. Luckily I won a few quick matches, and that helped. But I was tired in Cincinnati. I was really pumped that I got to the final and obviously disappointed to lose in the final, but I was pumped to reach the final. I didn’t expect that.”
He admitted to having two days off when he arrived here, but was soon back to work:
“Yeah, it’s been fairly light. I haven’t done anything away from the court… That’s something that I have learned as I got older; whereas before when I was younger, I trained sometimes too much and didn’t listen to my body enough.”
But might those 11 matches in 15 days still take their toll? And what of Djokovic and Nadal?
Like many others, Murray would not be at all surprised if it was again one of them who made his way to the title match, yet both arrive with question marks over their form.
As the dominant man on the tour for over two years, the extraordinary Serb at last completed his Grand Slam by winning the elusive French Open, having lost only three matches in the first six months of the year. An early exit at Wimbledon showed how much it had taken out of him, though he did bounce back with the Toronto title. However, he suffered a painful loss to del Potro in the first round of the Olympics and subsequently pulled out of Cincinnati with a wrist injury.
As defending champion here, Djokovic still sounded both composed and positive ahead of the draw:
“After undergoing certain treatments I’ve gotten better. I’m just hoping that Monday when the tournament starts I’ll be able to get as close to the maximum of executing my backhand as possible.
“But sometimes time is what you need, and because the US Open is around the corner, I don’t have too much time. I try to compensate and improvise as much as I can and find the best ways of getting myself properly ready.”
From one wrist to another: Nadal injured his at the French Open, and did not play a match until the Olympics. Then he played a lot, winning gold in doubles and reaching the bronze-medal play-off. By the time he got to Cincinnati, he looked exhausted, as he admitted to the press this weekend.
“Well I am better… I am a little bit better. It’s obvious when you have been out for two and a half months you need a little bit of time… I finished [the Olympics] completely exhausted, very tired, no more energy in my body, but I tried my best and I enjoyed it a lot.”
He went on to win only four games against Borna Coric in his second match at Cincinnati.
Murray has been only too aware of all these developments, though he did point out that he could meet neither Djokovic nor Nadal until the final.
“Sometimes, when you play a lot of tennis, like Novak has, you can pick up niggles, and sometimes your body does need a break as much as anything.
“I think Rafa pretty much proved his fitness in Rio playing a lot of tennis, winning the doubles and also playing as many matches as anyone there. And then Novak obviously missed Cincinnati, but only a few weeks ago he was playing in Canada, as well. He’s played I think enough matches. It’s just whether he’s fully recovered. We will see.”
First things first, though. Who does each of the top four have to negotiate to reach the final?
Djokovic quarter
Djokovic begins against the towering Jerzy Janowicz, whose undoubted ability has been marred by an unpredictable temperament and assorted injuries. More of a threat in the next round is another tall young talent, Jiri Vesely, who scored one of those pre-Wimbledon wins over Djokovic in Monte-Carlo.
The Serb’s seeds are No28 Martin Klizan, then No20 John Isner or No13 Richard Gasquet, and the quarters could bring a thorough test from Cilic.
Nadal quarter
The Spaniard has a reasonable run as far as the fourth round, where he could meet this week’s Winston-Salem finalist, Roberto Bautista Agut. Then the ever-improving Canadian Milos Raonic, who made his first Major final at Wimbledon under the watchful eye of John McEnroe, promises a tough quarter-final—though Gael Monfils is on a 14-3 run since Wimbledon.
Wawrinka quarter
One of the toughest quarters has fallen to No3 seed Stan Wawrinka, who has been far from his best since the clay season. He looked below par in losing to Dimitrov in Cincinnati and struggled with concentration against Nishikori in Toronto. How fit is he after missing Rio? With Fernando Verdasco in his opener, who beat him earlier this summer, and a slew of dangerous young players in Sascha Zverev, Nick Kyrgios and Dominic Thiem in his quarter—not to mention del Potro—Wawrinka has his work cut out, and all before a possible Murray semi.
Murray quarter
The No2 will be tested early by Lukas Rosol, who has won the first set from Murray in both previous matches. The Briton’s first seed is Gilles Simon, with the improving Dimitrov or veteran Feliciano Lopez next. Nishikori or David Goffin could also pose a challenge in the quarters.
But Murray has rarely looked as strong and confident as he does now, and despite a sideways reference to his advancing years—“I hope I’m still playing like this when I’m 38 years old but it’s pretty unlikely”—he is keen to make hay while the sun shines, and there is always that No1 ranking to lure him on.
“I’m actually using [my age] as a positive, that you have to make the most of every opportunity. It’s a slightly different mentality to maybe when you’re younger and you feel like you have a bit more time on your side. I want to make the most of every tournament I play, and try and win and achieve as much as I can in the next few years.”
Other British openers
Kyle Edmund faces No13 seed Gasquet for the first time, and is in Djokovic’s eighth.
Daniel Evans takes on wild card Rajeev Ram, and a win could set up a clash with one of the most talented teenagers in the draw, the No27 seed Zverev.
Aljaz Bedene faces No14 seed Kyrgios for the first time: Bernard Tomic would be the next seed.
Djokovic and Nadal will open on Monday, Murray and Wawrinka take to court on Tuesday.