Maria Sharapova may have missed slipping out of the top 10 by a hair’s breadth a couple of weeks back, but her prowess on clay—now undisputed despite her early battles for form on the slippery dirt—has turned things around nicely.
And she has done so to such an extent that she will be one of the favourites for this year’s French Open after missing much of the latter stages of 2013 with a recurrent shoulder problem.
With her first Madrid title at the weekend, she has risen to No7—and No2 in the race—as she heads to the clay tournament that has yielded her some special results. She has won the Rome Premier twice before and, having pulled out of the quarters last year with illness, she could now put on still more ranking points in time for the French Open seedings.
What’s more, Sharapova arrives in the Eternal City with an unbeaten run this year on clay, and in a position to win three titles in a row after Stuttgart and Madrid. But far more impressive in the wider scheme of things is her record over the last three years. Since losing the French Open semi-final to eventual champion Li Na in 2011, Sharapova has put together a 46-3 win-loss record.
The rub is, all three losses came to one woman, her nemesis Serena Williams. Indeed she has not beaten Williams in their last 15 matches, dating back a decade.
And Williams proved her own prowess on clay in a spectacular 2013 season of 11 titles that saw her unbeaten in all 28 matches on the red dirt: Charleston, Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros and Bastad.
These two giants of the women’s game, and perhaps its most popular and widely recognised, have been a constant combined presence since the first year they met in 2004. Sharapova beat Williams in the Wimbledon final to claim her first Major at the age of 17.
Only last year, at the Rome Premier, the two held the top two rankings and contested the world No1 at Roland Garros—but then their paths began to diverge.
But there now seems to be a very real chance for Sharapova to close on her rival again after Williams was forced to pull out of Madrid with a thigh injury. And while Williams remains the No1 seed in Rome, there is still some uncertainty about her fitness, and that is a big concern for the American who now has to defend vast points not only through the rest of the clay swing but onto the hard courts that fill the post-Wimbledon season.
As luck would have it, the two are drawn in the same half, so whether Williams is here or not will have a big knock-on effect for the Russian.
Not that these two are the only Rome champions in the field. Jelena Jankovic has won the Italian title twice, and there is a slew of French Open champions and finalists, too, who may fancy their chances if “the big two” come to Rome carrying either fatigue or injury.
Venus Williams lost to her sister at Roland Garros in 2002, Svetlana Kuznetsova has been both finalist and champion, as has Francesca Schiavone. Ana Ivanovic won six years ago, while Sara Errani and Sam Stosur have been runners up.
The most high profile, and dangerous, other French champion in the draw, however, is Na Li. She has also been a finalist in Rome, and ranked No2, she has avoided both Sharapova and Williams before the final.
Other clay champions this season include Andrea Petkovic, Carla Suarez Navarro in Oiras, Caroline Garcia in Bogota, and Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor in Marrakech.
Can they, or any of the younger stars, break the Williams—Sharapova stranglehold?
Serena Williams half
Should Williams play, she has one of the toughest sections in the draw. Will that influence her decision, even though she is attempting to defend a title after retiring from the defence of Madrid? Will caution prevail so close to the French Open.
Her first match could be against one of those clay champions, Petkovic, and her first seed is Sloane Stephens who, memorably, beat Williams last year in the Australian Open when Williams was also carrying a leg problem.
As if that was not enough, her scheduled quarter-final opponent is the highest of the next seeded group, No5 Petra Kvitova, though Williams has yet, thus far, to lose to the Czech. Indeed it may be pocket rocket, Dominika Cibulkova, who had an outstanding first three months to 2014 including the final of the Australian Open, who makes it to the final eight—though she has a tough opener against Katowice finalist, Camila Giorgi.
And of course, there is Sharapova lurking in the semis, though how fresh she will be after two consecutive gruelling three-setters in Madrid remains to be seen. She also faces the prospect of a quarter-final clash with the very woman who demanded the maximum in the Madrid final, Simona Halep.
It is, in fact, the impressive 22-year-old, who heads this quarter as No4 seed in the absence of the overall No4 ranked Victoria Azarenka, still absent with a foot injury.
It was also in Rome last year that, arguably, Halep’s stand-out surge up the rankings began. She beat outstanding competition to reach the semis, falling to Williams, on her way to six titles during the year, and she already has the Doha title and the Madrid final to her name in 2014.
But the route to the semis is difficult for both Halep and Sharapova. Halep could bump into a returning Venus Williams in her third match, or the clay expert Suarez Navarro, the No13 seed. Sharapova may face the classy veteran, Daniela Hantuchova in her first match and then a resurgent Ivanovic, who took the first set in their recent Stuttgart final, in the third round.
Na Li half
It has been a very good year for the popular Li. She heads the race after wins in Shenzhen and the Australian Open plus the semis in Indian Wells and the finals in Miami. She almost got the better of Sharapova in the Madrid quarters, too, winning the first set, and she is, of course, a former French Open champion.
She was in buoyant mood ahead of Rome, and she has been practising here for a couple of days already.
She is helped along, too, by what looks like the more straightforward half of the draw for the No2 seed. She is, though, scheduled to meet Stosur in the third round, should the Australian beat the No15 seed, Sabine Lisicki, in one of the first-round clashes of the tournament.
Not that Stosur’s form this season—the 30-year-old is currently ranked at No18—has been notable: She has a win-loss record of 13-11. However she has beaten Li in all six previous meetings and is a former finalist in Rome and Roland Garros.
The stand-out competitor on clay to emerge from the other segment is Errani, though her friend and doubles partner Roberta Vinci—Italy’s favourite daughters—could clash in the second round.
The other quarter is packed with possibilities. No3 seed Agnieszka Radwanska is not at her best on clay, leaving the draw open for more proficient exponents to come through, notably two-time Rome champion Jankovic. But Kuznetsova, if she survives a tricky opener against Maria Kirilenko, is scheduled to meet the Serb in the second round.
Jankovic could then face Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who beat her at the same stage in Madrid. Also notable is a first-round clash between Schiavone and the fast-rising young Canadian star, Eugenie Bouchard, courtesy of the withdrawal of Caroline Wozniacki with injury
If Jankovic survives the early challenges, she could make it to the final—she beat Li here last year—but it is a tough road.
Final: Li beats Sharapova