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What Jannik Sinner’s National Bank Open withdrawal could mean for World No. 1 race with Carlos Alcaraz

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Jannik Sinner has pulled out of the National Bank Open in Toronto, which could give Carlos Alcaraz a chance to catch the Italian in the race for the World No. 1 spot.

Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Jack Draper have all pulled out of the first big tournament since Wimbledon, which could leave Alcaraz with an excellent chance of bouncing back from his first Grand Slam defeat.

Sinner’s win over Alcaraz at Wimbledon opened up a 3000+ point lead on the Spaniard in the ATP Tour rankings, but there could be scope for the World No. 2 to close the gap.

This is how Alcaraz could close the gap on Sinner in an extremely busy schedule that sees two ATP 1000 events before the US Open.

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz with their trophies at the Rome Open
Photo by Dan Istitene/Getty Images

Carlos Alcaraz could force huge ATP Tour rankings swing

Sinner’s withdrawal from the Toronto tournament sees the World No. 1 lose 200 points instantly and his excellent performances at these tournaments last year mean the pressure is already on.

Sinner is defending 3,200 ATP Tour points up until the US Open, including 1000 at the Cincinnati Open due to the Italian winning the tournament in 2024.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, only has 60 points to defend in the same stretch due to his poor performances in Toronto and Cincinnati last year.

Should Alcaraz win Toronto, with three of the top 10 already confirmed to be missing, as well as making finals in Cincinnati and the US Open, he’ll be on 11,490 points.

Should Sinner defend his points, which includes winning the US Open and Cincinnati, he will stay on 11,830 points.

That leaves 340 points between the top two players in the world as they head into the final stretch of the season.

There’s every chance Alcaraz heads into the ATP Tour Finals as the World No. 1 despite Sinner’s dominance over the last 18 months.

Why did Jannik Sinner pull out of the National Bank Open?

Sinner has reportedly pulled out of the next ATP 1000 due to a reoccurring elbow injury coming out of Wimbledon.

“I’m really disappointed to be missing the National Bank Open in Toronto, especially as I have such fond memories of playing in Canada,” said Sinner via Tennis Connected.

“Winning that title in Toronto two years ago was the start of a really special moment for me, but after speaking with my team, I have to recover,” continued the World No. 1.

Sinner is expected to return for the Cincinnati Open, which runs between August 8 and August 18 ahead of the US Open.